***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2012.-28.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 9999.0 5.0 7.3 -0.5 42.6 43.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 5.5 4.5 7.0 -0.4 44.5 45.2 3.4 5.0 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 7.5 7.1 7.6 0.0 50.0 50.2 5.6 7.1 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 2.9 3.3 5.8 0.6 58.8 58.2 0.7 2.4 4.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 4.6 4.3 5.9 -0.1 49.2 49.5 2.9 4.3 5.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 4.1 4.4 4.3 0.5 57.9 57.3 2.6 3.9 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 5.5 4.3 6.9 -0.6 42.1 42.8 3.4 5.0 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 90 10 100 0.3 0.1 4.5 0.0 49.8 50.0 -1.4 0.1 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 91 9 100 5.5 5.2 6.3 -0.1 49.2 49.4 3.8 5.3 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 91 9 100 5.2 5.0 5.2 0.0 49.5 49.6 3.7 5.0 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 90 10 100 4.8 4.8 5.7 0.2 52.9 52.9 3.3 4.6 5.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 90 10 100 4.0 4.0 5.1 0.1 52.1 52.1 2.5 3.8 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 93 7 100 4.5 4.4 4.7 0.0 49.7 49.8 3.2 4.4 5.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 91 9 100 5.8 5.7 6.4 0.1 52.1 52.0 4.1 5.6 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 5.1 5.4 6.7 0.5 59.1 58.6 3.7 4.8 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 90 10 100 5.7 5.7 5.2 0.1 52.3 52.3 4.2 5.5 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 5.5 4.3 6.5 -0.6 41.3 42.3 3.5 5.1 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 89 11 100 4.2 3.5 4.2 -0.4 44.9 45.2 2.5 3.9 5.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 5.5 5.0 7.3 0.0 49.5 49.8 3.5 5.1 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 1.3 0.4 2.7 -0.5 43.5 44.0 -0.4 0.9 2.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 5.2 4.8 7.2 -0.1 48.5 48.7 3.4 4.9 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 4.8 4.2 7.0 -0.2 47.6 48.1 3.0 4.4 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 5.3 5.5 7.6 0.4 56.5 56.0 3.6 5.0 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 91 9 100 4.9 4.9 6.2 0.1 52.1 52.0 3.3 4.7 6.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 5.8 5.3 6.7 -0.2 47.7 48.0 4.0 5.4 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 5.1 4.6 4.3 -0.2 46.2 46.6 3.7 4.8 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 5.9 4.6 6.6 -0.6 41.9 42.7 3.7 5.4 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 3.9 4.2 6.2 0.6 59.7 59.2 2.3 3.6 4.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 3.6 2.9 3.7 -0.2 46.8 47.0 1.6 3.2 4.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 5.8 4.9 7.3 -0.3 45.9 46.4 3.7 5.3 6.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------