***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2012.-04.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 85 15 0 100 9999.0 -0.2 4.4 -3.3 12.5 20.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 81 19 0 100 0.8 -0.4 4.2 -3.1 13.2 21.2 2.2 4.0 5.6 30 Becej 27400G00 84 16 0 100 3.2 2.2 4.3 -3.0 13.4 21.6 4.7 6.3 7.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 83 17 0 100 -1.8 -3.2 2.0 -3.1 11.7 21.4 -0.3 1.5 3.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 82 18 0 100 0.4 -0.9 2.3 -3.2 12.5 21.6 1.8 3.4 4.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 0.0 -1.1 0.9 -2.5 15.9 27.5 0.9 2.5 4.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 82 18 0 100 0.8 -0.5 4.1 -3.3 12.5 20.4 2.2 3.9 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 77 23 0 100 -3.2 -4.2 1.5 -2.8 15.3 24.9 -1.9 -0.2 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 83 17 0 100 1.1 -0.1 3.0 -3.2 13.1 21.7 2.5 4.2 5.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 82 18 0 100 1.1 0.2 1.9 -3.1 14.0 22.9 2.5 4.0 5.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 81 19 0 100 0.5 -0.4 2.2 -2.9 14.4 23.7 1.9 3.5 5.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 75 25 0 100 -0.2 -1.1 2.1 -2.6 15.9 25.6 1.0 2.7 4.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 0.1 -0.9 1.6 -2.6 16.1 26.4 1.1 2.8 4.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 79 21 0 100 2.1 1.3 3.2 -2.8 15.0 23.7 3.3 4.8 6.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 83 17 0 100 0.7 -0.3 2.5 -2.7 13.2 23.6 2.2 3.8 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 77 23 0 100 1.4 0.3 1.8 -2.7 14.6 24.7 2.6 4.2 5.7 30 Nis 06700G01 81 19 0 100 1.0 -0.4 3.8 -3.4 12.3 20.2 2.3 4.0 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 80 20 0 100 0.0 -0.8 1.5 -3.0 14.4 23.4 1.1 2.5 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 81 19 0 100 1.0 -0.1 4.3 -3.0 14.0 22.0 2.4 4.0 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 78 22 0 100 -2.9 -3.7 0.4 -2.9 15.8 25.7 -1.7 -0.1 1.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 85 15 0 100 0.6 -0.6 3.7 -3.2 12.6 20.8 2.3 4.0 5.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 80 20 0 100 0.4 -0.8 4.0 -3.2 13.3 21.2 1.7 3.4 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 82 18 0 100 1.2 0.5 4.3 -2.7 15.3 23.4 2.5 4.1 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 80 20 0 100 0.9 0.0 3.0 -2.9 14.4 23.1 2.1 3.6 5.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 85 15 0 100 1.2 -0.1 2.8 -3.3 11.7 20.3 2.7 4.4 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 0.9 0.1 1.9 -2.4 17.5 28.1 1.7 3.2 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 85 15 0 100 0.7 -0.8 3.6 -3.3 12.1 20.3 2.5 4.5 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 82 18 0 100 -0.3 -1.5 2.2 -2.9 12.7 23.3 1.0 2.5 4.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 79 21 0 100 -0.6 -1.5 1.2 -2.9 15.9 25.0 0.8 2.6 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 83 17 0 100 0.9 -0.2 4.3 -3.1 13.3 21.3 2.5 4.3 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------