***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2012.-11.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 2.1 4.5 -1.3 33.7 38.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 0.9 1.5 4.1 -1.2 34.6 39.1 1.4 2.9 4.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.3 3.9 4.3 -1.1 35.2 39.7 3.7 5.2 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 -2.4 -1.9 2.2 -1.2 33.3 38.1 -1.9 -0.3 1.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 0.7 1.2 2.5 -1.2 33.6 38.9 1.1 2.7 4.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 -0.3 0.7 1.2 -0.8 37.7 43.0 0.3 1.9 3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 1.0 1.5 4.1 -1.2 33.7 38.2 1.5 3.0 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 -4.6 -3.8 1.6 -1.1 34.6 41.7 -4.0 -2.3 -0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 1.5 2.1 3.2 -1.2 34.1 39.4 2.0 3.5 4.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 1.1 1.7 2.1 -1.2 33.9 40.3 1.6 3.2 4.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 0.7 1.4 2.4 -1.0 35.6 40.7 1.2 2.8 4.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 -0.5 0.4 2.2 -0.9 36.2 41.8 0.1 1.7 3.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 0.1 1.0 1.8 -0.9 36.9 41.8 0.6 2.2 3.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 2.1 3.0 3.2 -0.9 38.0 41.6 2.6 3.9 5.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 1.1 1.9 2.7 -0.9 36.3 39.6 1.6 3.1 4.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 1.5 2.3 2.0 -0.9 36.7 41.3 1.9 3.5 5.1 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 1.2 1.7 3.8 -1.2 34.1 38.3 1.6 3.0 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 -0.2 0.4 1.6 -1.2 34.8 40.9 0.3 1.5 2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 1.3 2.0 4.2 -1.1 35.7 39.9 1.7 3.2 4.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 -3.7 -3.0 0.3 -1.2 34.1 42.3 -3.1 -1.2 0.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 1.2 1.7 3.9 -1.2 34.0 39.0 1.6 3.1 4.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 0.9 1.5 3.9 -1.1 35.3 39.5 1.4 2.7 3.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 1.5 2.2 4.1 -0.9 37.2 40.8 1.8 3.2 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 0.9 1.7 3.0 -1.0 36.5 40.9 1.4 2.7 4.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 1.3 1.8 3.0 -1.3 32.0 37.4 1.9 3.4 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 0.2 1.3 2.1 -0.8 37.8 42.8 0.8 2.5 4.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 0.8 1.4 3.8 -1.3 32.9 37.9 1.5 3.3 5.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 -0.5 0.3 2.5 -0.9 36.2 40.0 0.0 1.6 3.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 -1.1 -0.3 1.2 -1.1 35.8 41.8 -0.6 1.0 2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 1.4 2.0 4.3 -1.2 34.6 39.1 1.8 3.4 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------