***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2012.-18.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 2.0 3.2 -0.5 44.0 45.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 0.0 1.6 2.9 -0.4 44.6 45.8 0.5 2.1 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 2.2 3.6 3.0 -0.4 44.5 46.0 2.5 4.1 5.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 -2.9 -1.8 0.6 -0.8 40.0 42.6 -2.5 -0.7 1.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 -0.2 0.9 1.1 -0.6 41.8 44.3 0.1 1.6 3.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 -0.5 0.5 -0.3 -0.5 43.5 45.6 -0.3 1.0 2.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 0.3 1.6 2.8 -0.5 44.1 45.2 0.5 2.1 3.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -4.8 -3.7 0.2 -0.6 41.8 45.6 -4.5 -2.9 -1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 0.7 1.9 1.9 -0.5 43.4 45.6 1.0 2.5 3.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 0.2 1.2 0.7 -0.7 41.8 45.1 0.5 1.9 3.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 2.1 0.9 1.0 -0.6 42.4 45.0 0.1 1.5 2.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 1.5 0.3 0.7 -0.6 42.4 45.5 -0.5 0.9 2.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 -0.5 0.5 0.3 -0.6 42.4 44.8 -0.2 1.1 2.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 0.9 2.2 1.7 -0.6 42.3 45.2 1.4 2.8 4.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 0.2 1.0 1.1 -0.7 40.7 43.0 0.4 1.7 2.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 0.7 1.6 0.5 -0.6 42.1 44.4 0.9 2.2 3.5 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 0.3 1.6 2.6 -0.5 43.6 45.0 0.7 2.1 3.4 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 -1.2 -0.3 0.1 -0.8 40.3 44.3 -0.8 0.4 1.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 0.3 1.8 2.9 -0.4 44.9 46.2 0.7 2.2 3.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 -4.3 -3.0 -1.1 -0.8 40.6 44.5 -3.8 -2.1 -0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 0.4 1.7 2.6 -0.5 43.7 45.4 0.7 2.3 3.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 0.0 1.2 2.7 -0.4 44.0 45.5 0.3 1.7 3.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 0.4 1.7 2.8 -0.4 44.7 46.3 0.7 2.1 3.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 0.1 1.2 1.6 -0.6 42.0 45.1 0.5 1.8 3.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 2.9 1.7 1.6 -0.7 41.4 43.7 1.0 2.3 3.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 1.9 1.0 0.6 -0.5 43.2 45.3 0.3 1.4 2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 3.8 2.1 2.4 -0.6 42.9 44.5 0.9 2.9 4.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 -1.0 -0.1 0.8 -0.7 40.7 43.0 -0.7 0.6 1.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 -2.1 -0.8 -0.3 -0.8 40.6 44.3 -1.6 0.2 1.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 0.5 2.0 3.0 -0.4 44.7 45.9 0.8 2.5 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------