***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2012.-18.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 9999.0 2.7 4.8 -1.4 23.0 29.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 2.0 1.8 4.5 -1.3 23.9 30.7 2.5 3.5 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 4.4 4.3 4.8 -1.1 26.4 32.6 4.7 5.7 6.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 -0.7 -0.7 2.7 -1.1 25.8 31.9 -0.3 0.7 1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 1.8 1.7 2.9 -1.3 24.1 30.7 2.2 3.0 3.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 1.3 1.4 1.5 -0.8 30.2 36.6 1.6 2.3 3.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 2.1 1.8 4.4 -1.4 22.2 29.1 2.5 3.5 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 -2.7 -2.6 1.9 -1.1 26.1 33.6 -2.2 -1.3 -0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 2.6 2.6 3.6 -1.2 24.9 31.3 3.0 3.9 4.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 2.3 2.3 2.5 -1.2 25.0 32.0 2.7 3.5 4.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 1.9 2.0 2.8 -1.1 27.3 33.5 2.3 3.1 3.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 1.1 1.2 2.5 -1.0 28.0 34.5 1.5 2.3 3.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 1.5 1.6 2.1 -1.0 27.5 33.8 1.9 2.6 3.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 3.1 3.2 3.6 -1.1 27.8 34.2 3.5 4.2 5.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.2 2.3 3.3 -0.9 28.0 33.5 2.5 3.4 4.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 2.6 2.7 2.4 -1.0 27.5 33.6 3.0 3.9 4.6 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 2.2 1.9 4.2 -1.4 21.2 28.2 2.6 3.5 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 0.9 0.9 1.8 -1.4 23.7 31.1 1.3 2.1 2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 2.4 2.3 4.7 -1.1 26.5 32.8 2.7 3.6 4.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 -2.0 -2.1 0.6 -1.3 23.7 32.4 -1.6 -0.6 0.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 2.3 2.2 4.4 -1.3 24.4 30.9 2.7 3.6 4.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 1.8 1.6 4.4 -1.2 24.1 31.0 2.2 3.0 3.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 2.5 2.6 4.7 -0.9 30.1 35.7 2.7 3.6 4.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 2.1 2.2 3.4 -1.1 27.2 33.5 2.5 3.2 4.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 2.7 2.5 3.5 -1.4 22.8 29.7 3.0 3.9 4.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 1.9 2.0 2.2 -1.0 28.0 34.6 2.2 3.0 3.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 2.5 2.2 4.1 -1.4 22.2 29.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 0.9 1.0 2.9 -1.0 27.7 33.5 1.3 2.1 2.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 0.2 0.2 1.4 -1.3 25.4 32.7 0.7 1.7 2.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 2.4 2.3 4.7 -1.2 24.7 31.3 2.9 3.9 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------