***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2012.-28.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 15.7 15.7 0.2 52.3 51.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 16.0 15.8 15.8 0.3 53.7 52.5 13.5 15.4 17.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 16.7 16.3 16.0 0.2 52.8 51.9 14.0 16.0 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 9.9 9.9 13.5 0.4 55.4 55.0 7.3 9.3 11.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 16.7 16.3 14.6 0.2 52.4 52.2 14.1 16.0 17.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 16.0 14.8 12.8 -0.4 44.4 46.6 13.5 15.4 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 15.9 15.5 15.5 0.1 51.7 51.0 13.4 15.3 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 8.1 7.0 13.2 -0.3 45.8 47.2 5.7 7.5 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 17.0 16.5 15.4 0.1 51.3 51.1 14.3 16.3 18.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 16.5 15.3 14.0 -0.4 45.5 46.7 13.9 15.8 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 16.9 16.1 14.3 -0.1 48.7 49.4 14.3 16.2 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 16.5 15.7 13.9 -0.1 49.2 50.0 13.9 15.8 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 17.1 16.4 14.2 0.0 50.2 50.9 14.4 16.3 18.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 17.1 15.8 15.1 -0.4 45.5 46.0 14.3 16.3 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 15.5 16.0 15.0 0.8 60.7 59.9 13.4 15.0 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 17.6 16.9 14.2 0.0 49.9 50.6 15.0 16.9 18.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 15.6 15.1 15.3 0.1 50.9 50.3 13.2 15.0 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 15.9 14.2 13.4 -0.7 41.6 43.5 13.1 15.1 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 16.1 16.1 16.1 0.4 55.4 53.9 13.5 15.5 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.4 12.0 12.0 -0.6 43.5 45.5 10.8 12.7 14.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 16.8 16.1 15.7 0.1 50.7 50.5 14.1 16.0 17.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 16.2 15.9 15.5 0.2 52.5 51.6 13.7 15.6 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 16.4 16.5 16.2 0.5 56.4 54.7 13.7 15.7 17.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 17.2 15.9 14.9 -0.4 45.3 46.0 14.4 16.4 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 15.9 15.6 14.6 0.3 53.5 52.7 13.4 15.3 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 16.6 16.7 13.9 0.5 56.9 56.4 14.3 16.0 17.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 16.4 15.9 15.1 0.1 51.2 50.6 13.8 15.8 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 15.7 15.7 14.2 0.4 54.7 54.7 13.3 15.2 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.6 10.9 12.9 -0.7 42.2 44.1 9.8 11.8 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 16.0 15.9 16.0 0.3 54.5 53.3 13.4 15.4 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------