***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2012.-04.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 76 24 0 100 9999.0 11.1 12.2 -2.4 21.3 28.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 11.5 11.5 12.3 -2.1 24.1 30.4 12.5 14.1 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 11.8 11.7 12.4 -2.3 23.0 30.1 13.0 15.0 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 5.2 4.9 10.4 -2.6 21.4 29.6 6.6 8.7 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 11.9 11.4 10.8 -2.6 21.4 29.7 13.0 14.9 16.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 11.6 11.0 9.8 -2.7 21.4 31.6 12.6 14.6 16.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 75 25 0 100 11.0 11.0 12.0 -2.2 22.5 28.9 12.2 13.8 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 5.1 4.7 10.2 -2.4 23.3 32.6 5.8 7.4 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 12.2 11.7 11.4 -2.6 21.8 29.9 13.2 15.1 17.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 11.9 11.4 10.7 -2.6 22.6 31.2 12.8 14.8 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 12.1 11.5 10.8 -2.5 22.0 30.9 13.1 15.1 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 11.9 11.4 10.8 -2.4 22.8 32.4 12.8 14.9 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 12.2 11.7 10.4 -2.5 22.1 32.0 13.2 15.2 17.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 12.0 11.6 11.7 -2.4 24.1 31.6 12.9 15.1 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 11.3 11.1 10.6 -2.3 22.5 30.9 12.2 13.7 15.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 12.8 12.3 10.5 -2.6 21.4 30.9 13.9 15.9 17.8 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 10.7 10.6 11.8 -2.1 23.1 29.4 11.7 13.3 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 11.1 10.5 10.4 -2.5 23.4 31.9 11.8 13.8 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 11.6 11.6 12.5 -2.1 24.8 31.3 12.5 14.3 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 9.7 9.4 8.8 -2.2 25.5 34.6 10.3 12.3 14.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 11.9 11.5 11.9 -2.6 21.6 29.3 13.0 15.0 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 11.2 11.2 12.1 -2.1 23.8 30.2 12.3 14.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 11.7 11.6 12.6 -2.1 25.1 31.8 12.6 14.4 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 12.2 11.8 11.6 -2.5 23.4 31.2 13.2 15.3 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 10.9 10.8 10.8 -2.5 21.5 28.9 12.2 13.9 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 12.4 11.8 10.3 -2.4 22.2 32.1 13.1 14.9 16.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 11.6 11.4 11.5 -2.5 21.1 28.3 12.9 14.7 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 11.4 11.0 10.6 -2.6 21.5 30.3 12.5 14.2 15.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 8.4 7.9 9.8 -2.4 24.9 33.5 9.0 11.2 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 11.3 11.3 12.4 -2.2 23.5 30.1 12.4 14.1 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------