***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2012.-11.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 10.9 11.5 -0.8 40.5 43.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 9.3 10.8 11.3 -0.8 40.5 43.4 10.0 11.7 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 9.9 11.7 11.7 -0.7 42.0 44.7 10.7 12.6 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 3.4 5.1 9.8 -0.7 42.1 44.7 4.1 5.9 7.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 9.9 11.4 10.3 -0.8 41.5 45.0 10.5 12.3 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 8.8 10.6 9.4 -0.8 41.3 45.2 9.6 11.7 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 9.0 10.4 11.1 -0.9 39.4 42.7 9.7 11.5 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 2.0 3.4 9.5 -0.9 40.1 45.0 2.7 4.4 6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 10.1 11.9 10.9 -0.8 41.5 45.1 10.8 12.8 14.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 9.6 11.2 10.1 -0.9 40.6 44.9 10.3 12.2 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 9.8 11.7 10.3 -0.7 42.1 45.8 10.6 12.6 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 9.6 11.3 10.1 -0.8 41.3 45.7 10.3 12.3 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 9.7 11.4 9.9 -0.8 41.0 45.6 10.4 12.5 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 10.3 11.9 10.9 -1.0 40.2 43.5 11.1 13.0 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 9.4 10.9 10.1 -0.4 44.9 45.9 9.8 11.3 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 10.1 12.0 10.0 -0.7 41.9 45.7 10.9 13.0 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 8.9 10.1 10.8 -1.0 38.2 41.6 9.6 11.2 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 8.6 10.0 9.6 -1.1 38.8 43.7 9.4 11.2 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 9.5 11.2 11.6 -0.7 41.5 44.0 10.3 12.1 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 6.5 7.8 7.7 -1.2 36.4 42.8 7.3 9.4 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 9.9 11.5 11.3 -0.8 41.4 44.8 10.6 12.5 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 9.4 10.8 11.0 -0.9 39.1 42.2 10.2 11.8 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 9.5 11.4 11.7 -0.7 42.0 44.4 10.4 12.2 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 10.3 12.0 10.9 -0.9 40.5 44.2 11.1 13.1 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 9.1 10.6 10.2 -0.8 40.2 43.8 9.8 11.6 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 9.6 11.1 9.7 -0.8 40.0 45.4 10.3 12.2 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 9.5 10.9 10.8 -0.9 39.5 43.4 10.2 12.1 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 9.3 10.7 10.1 -0.6 43.7 45.6 9.8 11.2 12.5 29 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 5.8 7.2 8.8 -1.2 37.5 43.0 6.6 8.6 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 9.1 10.8 11.5 -0.8 41.0 43.9 9.9 11.7 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------