***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2012.-28.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 76 24 0 100 9999.0 0.6 4.0 30.9 30.8 22.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 75 25 0 100 1.9 1.9 3.1 25.6 27.9 21.6 2.5 5.1 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 2.2 2.5 4.3 34.2 31.4 23.3 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 79 21 0 100 1.8 3.3 6.3 43.8 38.4 26.2 2.6 5.8 11.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 79 21 0 100 2.6 4.5 6.2 45.5 38.1 26.5 3.7 6.6 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 1.8 4.5 7.6 62.1 49.8 33.0 2.0 4.6 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 76 24 0 100 1.7 2.0 3.2 26.0 28.3 21.7 2.4 4.3 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 3.0 5.6 6.7 52.1 41.1 29.1 4.0 7.8 13.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 78 22 0 100 2.0 3.6 6.1 46.6 38.3 26.8 2.8 5.4 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 76 24 0 100 2.7 5.1 6.9 51.8 40.5 28.9 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 2.3 4.2 6.2 50.3 41.5 28.5 3.0 5.8 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 75 25 0 100 1.8 3.5 5.9 49.9 41.2 28.5 2.3 5.1 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 2.4 4.6 6.5 51.1 43.4 30.3 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 3.4 5.1 5.7 43.7 36.1 25.5 4.3 9.1 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 1.8 3.6 6.7 46.3 42.5 27.4 2.2 5.0 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 1.8 3.6 6.3 50.6 42.5 28.9 2.2 4.9 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 80 20 0 100 1.7 1.6 2.6 21.5 24.5 18.9 2.4 5.0 8.9 30 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 2.1 4.3 7.3 54.6 42.4 29.8 2.8 5.8 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 74 26 0 100 2.1 2.1 3.4 27.3 28.2 21.6 2.8 5.8 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 2.5 4.5 7.4 49.9 38.9 28.5 3.3 7.1 12.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 77 23 0 100 2.0 3.2 5.2 40.3 34.8 24.7 2.9 6.0 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 82 18 0 100 1.9 1.5 2.5 20.0 22.6 17.8 3.0 6.4 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 75 25 0 100 2.4 2.6 4.0 31.7 29.3 21.8 3.1 6.8 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 2.6 4.4 6.1 47.3 38.6 27.0 3.2 7.2 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 80 20 0 100 1.2 1.8 5.2 38.0 34.3 24.9 1.6 4.4 9.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 2.5 4.6 6.3 49.7 42.4 29.0 3.0 6.1 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 77 23 0 100 1.5 2.0 4.5 33.0 31.9 23.7 2.1 4.5 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 2.0 3.9 6.5 47.5 41.7 27.2 2.7 5.2 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 3.2 6.5 7.5 55.5 42.8 30.4 4.2 8.4 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 2.0 2.1 3.4 27.5 28.6 22.1 2.5 5.1 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------