***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2012.-04.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 4.7 10.6 92.8 62.8 47.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 2.4 6.0 9.9 77.7 56.8 43.6 2.4 4.8 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 2.4 7.6 10.8 90.7 61.6 48.3 2.2 4.8 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 2.7 8.6 11.9 106.7 66.0 47.3 2.8 5.2 8.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 2.6 9.2 11.9 106.8 66.6 50.8 2.5 5.1 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 5.1 6.0 12.9 100.9 64.7 49.1 2.2 3.8 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 2.2 6.1 10.1 81.5 58.3 43.3 2.1 4.5 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 3.4 11.2 13.4 107.5 66.3 51.7 3.3 6.5 11.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 2.9 8.6 12.4 107.9 66.9 51.9 3.0 5.3 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 2.6 9.2 13.4 108.4 66.6 52.4 2.5 5.1 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 2.3 7.9 11.4 110.5 67.5 51.4 2.3 4.5 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 2.8 9.2 11.6 110.2 67.5 51.3 2.8 5.2 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 2.6 8.1 12.1 103.5 65.6 50.2 2.4 4.8 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 3.8 10.9 13.0 87.3 59.3 47.4 3.4 7.6 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 1.6 5.7 12.1 104.2 64.6 42.8 1.6 3.4 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 2.0 6.7 11.5 107.9 66.6 50.2 1.9 3.8 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 2.5 6.6 9.8 77.6 56.7 42.0 2.4 5.1 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 3.3 10.2 15.3 104.1 65.0 52.6 3.2 6.2 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.0 7.3 10.0 77.4 56.7 44.4 3.0 5.8 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 3.7 10.4 18.8 99.7 63.5 51.0 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 2.7 8.6 11.5 105.9 66.6 51.5 2.5 5.0 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.0 7.2 10.2 76.3 55.9 42.8 2.6 5.7 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 2.8 7.5 10.6 79.9 57.7 45.8 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.7 10.4 13.2 96.8 63.2 50.8 3.3 6.7 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 3.1 8.3 11.9 96.8 63.5 48.0 3.1 5.6 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 2.1 7.2 12.4 100.3 64.8 48.8 2.0 4.2 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 2.4 7.2 11.3 90.5 61.6 46.3 2.4 4.8 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 1.8 6.6 11.9 109.3 66.7 46.4 1.8 3.7 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 5.4 14.8 16.8 101.4 64.1 52.0 5.2 9.6 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 2.6 6.8 10.1 81.4 58.6 45.0 2.6 5.1 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------