***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2012.-11.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 13.6 15.6 135.5 74.4 57.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 11.8 17.9 14.4 125.6 72.0 55.4 4.3 8.6 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.8 17.5 15.4 131.4 73.4 56.7 3.8 7.8 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 13.6 19.6 15.4 118.4 69.9 54.6 4.1 9.2 17.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.9 14.7 15.3 120.8 70.6 55.5 3.2 6.9 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.6 10.3 16.0 106.5 66.3 53.2 3.2 6.1 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 10.2 15.6 14.3 124.2 71.6 55.3 3.6 7.3 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 16.5 24.2 17.0 115.4 69.5 56.1 4.7 11.0 21.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.8 14.1 15.8 126.4 72.2 57.1 3.2 6.6 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 4.1 14.1 16.7 119.6 70.4 56.5 3.5 7.1 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 9.3 13.2 14.3 116.8 69.8 55.4 3.2 6.5 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.3 13.0 14.5 113.0 68.8 55.1 3.1 6.6 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.6 14.0 15.3 109.5 67.4 53.8 3.6 7.6 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 6.0 19.4 18.4 123.1 71.3 56.4 5.4 10.0 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 4.4 14.0 14.6 109.7 67.3 52.6 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 10.4 13.8 14.3 112.0 68.3 54.1 3.6 7.5 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.1 16.1 13.8 117.7 69.8 53.2 3.7 7.8 14.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 16.2 16.1 19.1 120.9 70.6 56.4 4.0 8.0 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.3 16.5 14.8 126.8 72.3 55.3 3.1 7.0 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 14.3 19.8 24.8 115.6 69.2 55.8 5.0 10.1 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.7 15.4 15.6 131.8 73.5 57.1 3.7 7.0 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.8 14.9 14.2 113.2 68.5 52.2 3.9 7.9 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.2 17.6 15.7 127.6 72.5 55.4 3.8 7.9 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.4 16.2 17.6 125.7 72.0 56.9 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 10.8 18.6 17.5 135.1 74.2 57.5 3.1 7.2 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.0 13.1 15.6 108.5 67.3 54.2 3.4 7.1 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 9.1 15.5 17.0 136.4 74.5 57.8 3.3 6.6 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 3.5 12.0 14.5 111.2 67.9 53.1 2.9 6.2 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 6.7 23.3 21.4 118.7 70.0 55.9 5.6 11.6 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.9 15.6 14.7 128.6 72.8 56.2 3.5 7.1 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------