***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2012.-18.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 13.8 12.1 116.4 69.7 54.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 3.7 12.8 11.4 102.2 66.1 51.7 3.4 7.2 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 5.5 20.3 13.2 118.1 69.9 54.7 4.8 10.0 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 6.4 19.7 14.2 113.4 68.0 51.6 6.2 11.4 18.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 5.6 19.6 14.3 115.1 68.6 52.8 5.4 10.5 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 14.7 17.3 14.3 103.1 64.4 51.5 5.4 10.7 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 4.0 11.6 10.9 99.7 65.2 51.1 3.7 7.2 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 8.1 25.2 16.1 111.9 67.4 52.6 7.4 14.4 24.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 6.4 20.0 14.7 120.2 70.2 53.9 5.9 10.9 17.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 6.1 22.4 16.2 117.8 69.1 53.0 5.5 11.4 20.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 7.3 21.5 13.8 111.4 67.4 52.1 6.8 12.5 20.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 7.3 22.2 13.6 109.4 66.9 52.3 6.8 13.0 21.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 6.4 19.9 13.7 107.5 66.1 53.1 5.6 11.4 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 8.0 23.4 16.6 114.8 68.2 52.7 7.4 13.6 21.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 4.5 18.1 13.6 110.9 67.3 49.6 4.4 9.4 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 6.5 19.6 13.4 108.8 66.6 52.1 6.0 11.5 19.2 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.4 11.7 10.8 98.6 64.9 49.9 4.3 7.7 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 7.5 25.3 18.5 120.7 69.8 53.2 6.9 13.4 22.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.5 15.6 12.1 106.7 67.2 52.1 4.1 8.5 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.8 23.9 21.7 110.2 66.7 52.7 6.7 13.6 23.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 5.6 20.3 13.8 123.4 71.2 55.4 5.0 9.9 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 4.3 13.9 11.6 102.9 66.1 51.1 4.3 8.2 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 5.1 15.9 13.4 112.6 68.4 52.9 4.8 9.0 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 6.0 21.3 16.6 122.2 70.5 53.9 5.3 10.6 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 4.4 14.8 13.9 118.7 70.1 54.6 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 14.3 18.5 14.5 111.3 67.2 54.1 4.7 9.9 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 5.1 16.0 12.8 114.0 68.8 54.3 4.8 9.0 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 5.0 17.7 13.9 110.0 66.9 50.2 4.4 9.5 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 10.6 31.2 20.0 116.4 68.4 52.9 9.9 17.9 29.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 3.8 13.8 11.6 106.1 67.1 52.8 3.6 7.4 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------