***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2012.-18.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 31.1 42.4 91.4 52.6 47.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 21.5 30.3 38.8 81.6 44.9 41.5 22.3 34.1 48.7 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 29.5 44.7 43.6 92.2 52.6 47.3 29.9 42.6 57.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 54.5 49.8 47.8 93.5 53.5 47.9 33.5 46.7 62.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 49.6 46.9 47.6 95.6 54.6 48.7 32.7 43.7 55.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 23.0 36.5 50.8 94.2 53.4 46.6 23.2 34.1 47.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 18.9 27.1 38.4 81.6 45.3 41.7 19.6 30.1 43.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 42.9 65.7 53.2 97.7 55.7 48.9 43.0 59.8 78.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 28.5 43.6 49.1 99.3 57.1 50.3 28.7 38.8 50.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 33.1 51.4 53.3 99.5 56.9 49.9 33.5 45.8 59.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 29.5 45.1 45.7 96.6 55.4 48.7 30.2 41.3 54.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 31.0 46.8 45.6 95.7 54.7 48.0 31.4 43.4 56.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 30.5 45.8 47.6 93.1 53.0 47.1 30.3 43.2 58.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 40.0 59.3 53.8 93.5 51.7 46.4 42.4 57.9 75.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 22.7 37.3 47.1 90.9 52.3 46.0 22.6 35.6 51.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 24.6 40.6 45.6 94.3 53.9 47.2 25.1 37.2 52.4 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 21.2 28.3 36.9 78.1 41.7 38.9 22.2 34.4 49.0 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 36.3 56.7 60.2 101.7 58.2 50.5 38.1 50.3 63.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 25.0 34.9 40.2 83.3 45.8 42.2 25.4 38.5 54.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 65.6 62.4 72.6 97.0 54.9 48.9 44.7 58.1 73.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 28.0 45.7 46.2 98.6 57.1 50.6 28.2 40.2 54.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 23.9 31.5 38.4 77.6 40.7 38.5 25.9 39.1 55.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 26.7 39.5 43.7 87.2 47.9 43.7 28.0 41.2 56.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 31.6 52.6 53.5 98.9 56.2 49.2 33.1 47.0 62.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 43.4 40.3 48.5 95.6 55.0 49.4 24.4 36.3 50.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 29.0 43.8 48.8 93.0 53.4 47.7 29.2 41.4 55.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 40.9 36.4 45.6 91.6 52.5 47.4 23.9 34.7 47.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 24.6 38.7 46.8 93.0 53.5 46.8 25.0 36.3 49.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 55.0 77.6 65.6 100.5 57.3 49.9 57.0 71.0 86.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 22.1 31.1 39.9 84.2 47.1 43.3 22.0 33.2 47.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------