***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2018.-04.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 1.5 2.8 5.5 -1.1 35.7 38.0 2.5 4.3 6.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 1.6 2.4 5.0 -1.2 34.1 37.0 2.2 4.0 5.6 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 3.8 4.8 5.4 -1.2 33.8 36.7 4.7 6.3 7.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 -1.1 -0.2 2.6 -1.2 33.2 36.4 -0.3 1.5 3.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 0.8 2.0 3.6 -1.1 35.0 37.8 1.8 3.4 4.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 -0.1 0.5 0.9 -1.5 29.2 35.8 0.9 2.5 4.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 1.6 2.6 5.2 -1.0 36.7 39.0 2.2 3.9 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 74 26 0 100 -3.1 -2.7 1.0 -1.8 26.3 33.4 -1.9 -0.2 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 1.6 2.7 3.7 -1.0 35.0 37.8 2.5 4.2 5.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 1.5 2.1 1.9 -1.6 29.1 34.6 2.5 4.0 5.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 72 28 0 100 0.9 2.0 2.9 -1.2 33.8 37.5 1.9 3.5 5.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 0.0 0.8 2.0 -1.4 30.7 36.3 1.0 2.7 4.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 0.2 1.2 2.1 -1.2 33.7 38.5 1.1 2.8 4.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 2.4 3.0 3.2 -1.5 30.1 34.3 3.3 4.8 6.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 1.8 2.7 4.2 -0.7 38.6 40.6 2.2 3.8 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 1.7 2.7 2.4 -1.2 34.1 38.0 2.6 4.2 5.7 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 1.9 2.5 4.8 -1.2 34.2 36.9 2.3 4.0 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 0.2 0.6 1.2 -1.8 27.1 33.2 1.1 2.5 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 1.7 2.4 5.0 -1.2 33.7 36.6 2.4 4.0 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 -2.8 -2.5 -0.2 -2.1 25.2 32.6 -1.7 -0.1 1.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 1.3 2.6 4.9 -1.0 36.1 38.4 2.3 4.0 5.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 1.2 1.8 4.9 -1.1 34.1 36.4 1.7 3.4 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 1.7 2.5 4.9 -1.2 33.0 35.9 2.5 4.1 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 1.2 1.9 3.1 -1.5 30.2 34.9 2.1 3.6 5.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 1.8 2.9 4.5 -1.2 34.6 37.4 2.7 4.4 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 74 26 0 100 0.7 1.4 1.5 -1.5 29.8 36.4 1.7 3.2 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 1.5 2.9 5.1 -1.0 36.8 38.8 2.5 4.5 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 0.4 1.2 3.0 -1.0 35.6 38.6 1.0 2.5 4.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 -0.4 -0.3 0.4 -2.1 23.9 31.4 0.8 2.6 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 1.7 2.7 5.3 -1.1 34.6 37.4 2.5 4.3 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------