***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2018.-18.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 4.8 3.9 4.5 0.7 58.8 58.0 1.7 3.1 4.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 0.2 2.7 3.9 0.4 55.7 56.1 0.5 2.1 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 6.1 5.0 4.5 0.7 59.2 58.6 2.5 4.1 5.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 0.0 0.1 1.7 0.6 57.5 57.8 -2.5 -0.7 1.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 3.2 2.4 2.3 0.8 59.5 59.1 0.1 1.6 3.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 2.6 1.8 0.8 0.8 60.1 61.1 -0.3 1.0 2.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 4.0 2.6 4.0 0.4 55.5 55.9 0.5 2.1 3.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 -1.0 -1.9 0.8 0.8 60.1 60.9 -4.5 -2.9 -1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 4.3 3.3 2.8 0.8 59.8 59.3 1.0 2.5 3.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 3.5 2.7 1.4 0.8 60.0 60.2 0.5 1.9 3.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 3.2 2.3 1.8 0.8 60.0 59.9 0.1 1.5 2.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 2.5 1.6 1.2 0.8 59.6 60.2 -0.5 0.9 2.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 2.7 1.8 1.1 0.8 59.2 59.9 -0.2 1.1 2.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 4.5 3.5 2.5 0.7 58.1 58.4 1.4 2.8 4.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 2.2 2.1 2.6 0.4 56.1 57.0 0.4 1.7 2.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 3.8 2.9 1.4 0.7 59.1 59.4 0.9 2.2 3.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 2.7 2.3 3.7 0.2 52.7 54.1 0.7 2.1 3.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 1.8 1.1 0.8 0.8 59.8 60.2 -0.8 0.4 1.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 2.9 2.8 4.0 0.5 56.7 56.9 0.7 2.2 3.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 -0.2 -1.1 -0.2 0.9 60.4 61.3 -3.8 -2.1 -0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 4.2 3.2 3.8 0.8 59.5 59.0 0.7 2.3 3.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 2.3 1.9 3.5 0.2 52.5 54.3 0.3 1.7 3.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 2.6 2.7 4.0 0.6 58.1 58.0 0.7 2.1 3.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 3.3 2.4 2.2 0.7 59.2 59.1 0.5 1.8 3.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 3.9 3.0 3.3 0.7 58.6 58.3 1.0 2.3 3.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 2.8 2.1 0.9 0.8 59.9 60.4 0.3 1.4 2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 5.2 3.9 4.1 0.7 58.5 57.9 0.9 2.9 4.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 1.2 1.1 1.8 0.5 56.3 57.2 -0.7 0.6 1.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.9 60.0 60.6 -1.6 0.2 1.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 4.5 3.2 4.2 0.6 57.2 57.1 0.8 2.5 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------