***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2018.-28.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 89 11 0 100 11.3 10.3 12.5 -3.5 13.8 16.6 13.3 15.4 17.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 90 10 0 100 11.5 10.6 12.8 -3.6 13.5 16.3 13.5 15.4 17.2 30 Becej 27400G00 90 10 0 100 12.0 11.0 12.6 -3.9 13.1 15.8 14.0 16.0 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 92 8 0 100 5.1 4.4 9.1 -3.6 14.5 17.1 7.3 9.3 11.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 94 6 0 100 11.9 10.3 10.2 -4.5 9.8 12.4 14.1 16.0 17.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 96 4 0 100 11.4 8.7 7.8 -5.7 5.7 8.4 13.5 15.4 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 91 9 0 100 11.4 10.4 12.6 -3.6 12.5 15.5 13.4 15.3 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 98 2 0 100 3.5 1.2 8.0 -5.8 6.0 8.3 5.7 7.5 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 92 8 0 100 12.2 10.7 11.3 -4.3 10.6 13.3 14.3 16.3 18.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 95 5 0 100 11.7 9.7 9.2 -5.5 7.9 10.5 13.9 15.8 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 95 5 0 100 12.0 10.0 10.5 -4.8 8.2 10.9 14.3 16.2 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 97 3 0 100 11.6 9.3 9.1 -5.2 6.6 9.2 13.9 15.8 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 96 4 0 100 12.2 9.5 9.8 -5.4 5.7 8.3 14.4 16.3 18.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 92 8 0 100 12.0 10.6 11.5 -4.7 11.0 13.5 14.3 16.3 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 87 13 0 100 11.8 11.7 12.1 -2.5 19.2 21.7 13.4 15.0 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 95 5 0 100 12.8 10.5 9.8 -5.0 7.3 10.0 15.0 16.9 18.8 30 Nis 06700G01 90 10 0 100 11.3 10.4 12.4 -3.6 13.0 15.5 13.2 15.0 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 98 2 0 100 10.8 8.6 8.3 -6.0 7.3 9.6 13.1 15.1 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 90 10 0 100 11.4 10.4 12.8 -3.7 13.3 16.1 13.5 15.5 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 98 2 0 100 8.6 5.4 6.0 -6.9 4.3 6.3 10.8 12.7 14.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 92 8 0 100 12.0 10.7 12.0 -4.2 11.0 13.5 14.1 16.0 17.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 92 8 0 100 11.6 10.5 12.4 -3.8 12.3 14.4 13.7 15.6 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 89 11 0 100 11.7 10.7 12.8 -3.8 13.5 16.2 13.7 15.7 17.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 95 5 0 100 12.0 10.4 11.0 -5.0 9.8 12.3 14.4 16.4 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 93 7 0 100 11.3 10.0 11.0 -4.1 11.0 13.6 13.4 15.3 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 97 3 0 100 12.2 9.6 8.1 -5.6 5.1 7.6 14.3 16.0 17.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 92 8 0 100 11.7 10.4 11.7 -3.9 11.2 14.0 13.8 15.8 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 89 11 0 100 11.4 10.9 10.3 -3.4 15.6 18.3 13.3 15.2 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 98 2 0 100 7.4 4.8 7.5 -6.4 6.0 8.2 9.8 11.8 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 90 10 0 100 11.3 10.4 12.7 -3.6 13.3 16.3 13.4 15.4 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------