***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2018.-04.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 12.3 13.2 12.7 -1.2 36.2 39.1 12.8 14.7 16.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 12.0 12.9 12.8 -1.1 37.3 39.8 12.5 14.1 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 12.5 13.6 13.1 -1.1 37.8 40.4 13.0 15.0 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 6.1 7.4 10.1 -0.9 39.6 42.2 6.6 8.7 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 12.2 13.2 11.1 -1.4 35.1 38.6 13.0 14.9 16.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 11.9 12.6 9.7 -1.7 33.5 38.7 12.6 14.6 16.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 11.8 12.6 12.7 -1.2 36.8 39.3 12.2 13.8 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 5.1 5.2 9.3 -2.3 27.3 33.2 5.8 7.4 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 12.6 13.6 11.9 -1.3 35.9 39.1 13.2 15.1 17.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 12.1 12.6 10.4 -1.9 31.4 36.0 12.8 14.8 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 12.3 13.1 11.2 -1.6 33.4 37.6 13.1 15.1 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 12.1 12.4 10.2 -2.0 29.7 35.4 12.8 14.9 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 12.3 12.7 10.5 -2.0 29.4 35.7 13.2 15.2 17.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 12.3 13.0 11.9 -1.7 33.7 37.0 12.9 15.1 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 11.9 13.2 11.9 -0.4 44.5 45.9 12.2 13.7 15.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 13.2 14.0 10.7 -1.6 33.4 38.3 13.9 15.9 17.8 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 11.3 12.0 12.5 -1.2 36.6 39.0 11.7 13.3 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 11.1 11.4 9.9 -2.2 29.8 34.3 11.8 13.8 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 12.1 13.0 13.0 -1.1 37.5 40.1 12.5 14.3 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 9.5 9.1 7.5 -3.0 23.1 29.4 10.3 12.3 14.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 12.5 13.4 12.5 -1.3 35.9 39.0 13.0 15.0 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 11.9 12.6 12.5 -1.3 35.6 38.3 12.3 14.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 12.2 13.2 13.1 -1.1 38.0 40.5 12.6 14.4 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 12.6 13.3 11.9 -1.6 34.3 37.7 13.2 15.3 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 11.7 12.3 11.3 -1.5 34.2 37.6 12.2 13.9 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 12.4 12.6 9.5 -2.0 28.8 35.6 13.1 14.9 16.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 12.4 13.1 12.1 -1.4 34.3 37.6 12.9 14.7 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 12.0 13.4 10.9 -0.7 41.9 44.2 12.5 14.2 15.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 8.2 8.1 9.0 -2.6 26.7 32.0 9.0 11.2 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 11.9 12.8 12.9 -1.1 37.3 39.9 12.4 14.1 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------