***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2018.-18.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 8.4 11.9 10.8 0.5 55.1 55.0 8.9 11.2 13.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 7.5 10.7 10.6 0.4 54.8 54.7 7.9 10.1 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 8.4 11.8 11.1 0.5 54.9 54.7 8.9 11.2 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 2.8 6.4 8.4 0.6 56.6 56.1 3.3 5.5 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 8.7 12.1 9.4 0.6 56.5 56.3 9.1 11.3 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.7 12.0 9.1 0.9 59.3 58.6 8.8 10.8 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 7.4 10.6 10.6 0.5 55.3 55.0 7.8 9.9 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 1.7 4.3 8.8 0.6 55.8 56.1 2.1 3.8 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 9.0 12.4 10.1 0.5 55.2 55.3 9.5 11.7 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 8.6 11.6 9.4 0.5 55.1 55.5 9.0 11.0 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 14.0 12.4 9.5 0.7 57.3 57.2 9.4 11.5 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 8.8 12.3 9.3 0.7 57.2 57.1 9.3 11.4 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 12.2 12.3 9.1 0.8 58.1 57.8 9.4 11.4 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 8.8 12.0 10.1 0.1 51.4 52.3 9.2 11.8 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 7.1 9.6 9.0 0.5 55.9 55.9 7.5 9.1 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 14.5 13.0 9.4 0.8 58.7 58.0 9.8 12.0 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.0 10.4 0.4 54.0 54.0 7.5 9.6 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 7.9 10.6 9.4 0.4 53.9 54.5 8.2 10.2 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 7.9 11.1 10.8 0.4 54.5 54.4 8.2 10.5 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.1 8.7 7.6 0.4 53.9 54.6 6.1 8.2 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 8.5 11.9 10.5 0.4 54.7 54.7 9.1 11.3 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.5 10.3 0.2 52.5 53.0 7.9 10.1 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 7.9 11.0 11.0 0.4 53.9 54.0 8.3 10.5 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 9.3 12.4 10.2 0.3 53.4 53.8 9.7 12.0 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 7.7 10.7 9.2 0.4 54.1 54.4 8.2 10.3 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 11.3 11.5 8.9 0.9 60.0 58.9 8.9 10.6 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 8.3 11.7 10.2 0.4 54.9 54.9 8.9 11.1 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 11.5 10.3 8.9 0.7 57.5 56.8 7.9 9.5 11.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 8.7 8.2 8.8 0.3 53.2 54.2 5.6 7.8 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 7.6 10.7 10.7 0.5 55.2 55.0 8.0 10.1 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------