***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2018.-18.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 11.7 12.2 12.2 -0.9 34.5 37.8 12.1 13.3 14.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 11.3 11.8 12.2 -0.9 34.5 37.9 11.7 12.8 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 12.1 12.6 12.5 -0.9 34.3 37.8 12.5 13.7 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 7.9 6.5 9.5 -0.8 36.9 39.7 6.2 7.4 8.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 12.0 12.3 10.4 -1.2 31.3 35.6 12.5 13.6 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 11.4 11.6 9.3 -1.4 29.3 34.6 11.9 13.1 14.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 11.1 11.6 12.1 -0.9 33.8 37.5 11.5 12.6 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 4.2 4.1 9.1 -1.8 23.0 29.3 4.8 5.8 6.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 12.4 12.7 11.2 -1.1 31.7 36.2 12.8 14.0 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 11.8 11.8 10.0 -1.6 26.5 32.0 12.3 13.5 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 12.1 12.4 10.6 -1.3 29.9 34.9 12.7 13.9 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 11.8 11.8 9.8 -1.5 26.4 32.2 12.4 13.6 14.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 12.0 12.1 10.0 -1.5 26.5 32.3 12.6 13.9 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 12.1 12.4 11.3 -1.5 28.6 33.6 12.8 14.1 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.7 11.9 11.0 -0.4 43.3 44.4 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 12.7 13.0 10.2 -1.2 30.4 35.4 13.2 14.4 15.6 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 10.8 11.2 11.8 -1.0 32.9 36.7 11.2 12.3 13.3 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 10.9 10.8 9.6 -1.8 24.5 30.3 11.5 12.6 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 11.6 12.0 12.3 -0.9 34.3 37.8 11.9 13.1 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 8.6 8.1 7.4 -2.4 17.7 24.2 9.4 10.6 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 12.1 12.4 11.8 -1.1 31.7 35.9 12.5 13.7 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 11.3 11.6 11.8 -1.1 31.1 35.3 11.7 12.9 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 11.6 12.1 12.5 -1.0 34.3 37.9 12.0 13.2 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 12.4 12.6 11.3 -1.4 29.0 33.9 13.0 14.2 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 11.2 11.4 10.6 -1.2 30.8 34.7 11.6 12.8 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 11.7 11.7 9.3 -1.5 25.5 31.1 12.3 13.4 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 11.9 12.1 11.5 -1.1 31.9 35.7 12.2 13.4 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 13.0 12.0 10.2 -0.6 39.8 42.0 11.6 12.6 13.5 29 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 7.9 7.6 8.9 -2.1 21.3 27.5 8.6 9.9 11.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 11.3 11.8 12.2 -0.9 34.7 38.1 11.6 12.8 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------