***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2018.-11.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 10.7 17.0 15.9 129.9 72.9 60.3 4.4 8.2 13.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 17.6 19.6 15.8 137.6 74.7 60.3 4.3 8.6 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 10.4 15.4 14.9 118.2 69.7 57.3 3.8 7.8 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 12.9 17.0 14.6 104.0 66.0 54.2 4.1 9.2 17.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 9.5 11.9 13.6 101.1 64.7 52.8 3.2 6.9 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.4 8.9 11.5 91.6 61.9 49.9 3.2 6.1 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 15.1 18.3 15.8 143.5 76.1 61.8 3.6 7.3 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 16.5 18.2 13.3 93.3 62.0 50.7 4.7 11.0 21.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 8.7 11.1 14.3 102.7 65.0 53.5 3.2 6.6 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 9.5 10.7 13.8 95.3 62.4 51.0 3.5 7.1 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 9.0 10.3 12.4 95.1 62.6 51.2 3.2 6.5 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.4 10.6 12.2 94.9 62.8 52.0 3.1 6.6 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.6 12.0 12.5 95.4 62.8 51.2 3.6 7.6 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.8 17.2 17.0 110.3 67.4 54.9 5.4 10.0 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 10.4 13.2 14.6 100.2 65.6 53.0 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.3 11.8 12.1 96.4 63.4 51.8 3.6 7.5 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 17.0 20.9 15.8 147.4 77.0 63.0 3.7 7.8 14.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.8 12.3 14.5 96.8 62.6 50.2 4.0 8.0 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 10.4 16.6 15.4 128.8 72.5 58.5 3.1 7.0 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 14.0 15.0 16.7 90.8 61.1 49.2 5.0 10.1 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 9.1 12.6 14.5 110.6 67.5 55.8 3.7 7.0 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 16.3 18.7 16.4 139.7 75.2 62.2 3.9 7.9 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.1 16.1 15.2 119.2 70.0 56.6 3.8 7.9 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 10.2 13.1 15.1 104.8 65.4 53.4 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 10.1 16.2 16.3 122.4 70.8 58.6 3.1 7.2 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.9 12.1 13.7 99.7 65.0 53.2 3.4 7.1 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 8.9 14.8 16.4 131.6 73.3 60.6 3.3 6.6 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 8.6 10.3 12.8 94.6 63.6 51.7 2.9 6.2 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 15.7 18.0 15.2 96.1 62.5 50.8 5.6 11.6 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 14.2 15.9 15.7 131.9 73.4 59.7 3.5 7.1 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------