***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2018.-18.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 10.0 14.3 14.9 118.6 69.7 58.3 3.7 7.4 12.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 9.9 14.1 14.1 116.4 69.2 55.5 3.4 7.2 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 14.1 20.3 14.8 119.7 70.0 58.8 4.8 10.0 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 14.4 20.4 15.8 118.0 69.4 58.6 6.2 11.4 18.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 13.6 18.8 14.8 112.1 67.5 56.2 5.4 10.5 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 13.7 19.1 14.6 112.0 67.4 54.7 5.4 10.7 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 9.6 13.2 13.8 116.5 69.3 56.0 3.7 7.2 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 19.5 26.3 16.7 116.5 68.7 56.9 7.4 14.4 24.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 13.8 18.3 15.2 111.7 67.3 56.6 5.9 10.9 17.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.6 20.9 16.1 112.3 67.3 56.3 5.5 11.4 20.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 16.1 21.3 14.6 111.8 67.2 56.0 6.8 12.5 20.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 17.4 23.3 15.2 116.0 68.6 56.7 6.8 13.0 21.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 15.5 20.7 15.2 111.8 67.3 55.4 5.6 11.4 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 17.7 23.6 17.7 115.7 68.5 57.2 7.4 13.6 21.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 12.9 19.2 15.5 115.0 68.8 57.7 4.4 9.4 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 15.0 19.7 14.1 110.4 66.8 55.6 6.0 11.5 19.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 9.9 13.6 14.1 118.4 69.8 55.2 4.3 7.7 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 17.8 24.3 17.1 115.5 68.2 57.1 6.9 13.4 22.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 11.8 16.5 14.2 115.0 68.6 55.8 4.1 8.5 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 27.3 25.8 21.8 117.9 69.0 57.3 6.7 13.6 23.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 13.4 19.2 15.2 118.3 69.4 58.6 5.0 9.9 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.7 15.4 14.7 116.9 69.2 55.5 4.3 8.2 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 11.8 15.8 14.7 113.2 68.0 56.5 4.8 9.0 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 14.5 20.2 16.2 117.0 68.9 57.8 5.3 10.6 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.3 14.0 15.9 114.8 68.4 57.8 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 14.1 19.6 16.4 115.9 68.9 56.4 4.7 9.9 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 11.7 15.8 15.1 114.2 68.3 57.0 4.8 9.0 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 12.8 18.5 14.3 112.8 67.8 56.9 4.4 9.5 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 32.8 31.2 18.4 116.1 68.4 57.5 9.9 17.9 29.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.4 14.5 14.1 115.7 68.9 56.4 3.6 7.4 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------