***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.10.2017.-29.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 2.6 1.6 6.7 -2.1 18.8 25.5 3.3 4.9 6.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 2.2 1.3 6.3 -2.1 18.2 25.0 3.1 4.7 6.3 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 4.5 3.7 6.8 -2.0 18.3 25.3 5.3 6.9 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 0.1 0.2 4.7 -1.3 28.9 35.9 0.7 2.3 3.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 2.1 1.3 5.3 -1.9 20.4 27.8 2.6 4.0 5.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 1.8 1.4 2.9 -1.5 24.3 32.0 2.2 3.5 4.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 2.4 1.5 6.4 -2.1 19.3 25.9 3.1 4.6 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 -2.4 -3.8 2.8 -2.2 14.9 24.1 -1.7 -0.2 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.1 2.3 5.5 -1.6 22.5 29.4 3.4 5.0 6.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 2.9 1.8 3.7 -2.0 17.3 26.1 3.4 4.8 6.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 2.7 1.9 4.9 -1.6 21.6 29.3 3.0 4.4 5.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 1.6 0.7 3.8 -2.0 18.2 26.0 2.2 3.6 4.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 2.3 1.9 4.1 -1.5 24.5 30.9 2.7 4.0 5.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 3.0 2.4 5.0 -1.8 19.5 25.8 3.8 5.3 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 3.2 4.4 7.0 -0.2 46.8 49.1 3.4 4.6 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.5 3.2 4.5 -1.4 25.8 32.4 3.8 5.2 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 2.6 1.6 6.0 -2.2 18.4 25.2 3.2 4.8 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 1.6 0.4 3.0 -2.2 16.3 25.1 2.1 3.5 4.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 2.5 1.6 6.4 -2.0 18.6 25.4 3.2 4.8 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 -1.9 -3.6 1.2 -2.8 10.3 19.5 -0.9 0.5 1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 2.5 1.7 6.3 -1.8 20.6 27.3 3.0 4.6 6.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 1.8 0.8 6.1 -2.2 17.2 24.0 2.6 4.1 5.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 2.5 1.8 6.4 -1.8 19.3 25.8 3.2 4.6 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 2.4 1.5 4.9 -1.9 19.2 26.7 3.0 4.4 5.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 2.9 2.1 6.2 -2.0 18.8 25.5 3.6 5.1 6.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 2.7 1.9 3.5 -1.9 19.2 26.8 3.2 4.5 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 2.5 1.7 6.4 -2.1 19.5 25.6 3.3 5.0 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 1.9 2.4 5.3 -0.8 36.4 41.6 2.1 3.4 4.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 0.5 -1.2 2.1 -2.5 13.0 22.2 1.4 3.0 4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 2.5 1.6 6.7 -2.1 18.7 25.5 3.3 5.0 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------