***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.10.2017.-05.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 6.5 6.8 8.3 1.9 72.4 69.2 2.6 4.4 6.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 5.8 6.1 7.9 1.8 72.2 69.4 2.2 3.8 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 8.2 8.4 8.3 1.8 72.9 69.9 4.6 6.2 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 3.4 3.9 5.7 2.0 75.1 71.2 -0.6 1.2 2.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 5.3 5.4 6.3 1.7 71.1 68.2 1.7 3.4 4.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 3.1 4.0 3.5 1.2 65.8 63.4 0.9 2.5 4.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 5.7 6.1 8.1 2.0 73.4 70.1 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 1.8 1.5 3.8 1.2 66.2 64.5 -2.1 -0.3 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 6.2 5.9 6.0 1.3 67.0 65.3 2.6 4.2 5.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 5.8 5.5 4.5 1.3 66.4 64.6 2.4 4.0 5.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 5.3 4.9 5.2 1.2 65.5 63.8 1.8 3.4 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 4.5 4.3 4.5 1.3 67.2 65.3 1.0 2.6 4.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 4.4 4.2 4.3 1.1 64.9 63.1 1.1 2.8 4.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 6.4 6.5 6.2 1.7 71.0 68.3 3.3 4.7 6.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 5.6 5.8 6.4 1.5 71.0 68.0 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 6.0 5.8 4.8 1.3 67.1 65.1 2.5 4.2 5.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 5.7 6.2 7.9 2.0 73.7 70.1 2.3 3.9 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 4.2 4.0 4.2 1.6 69.1 66.8 1.1 2.5 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 5.9 6.1 7.9 1.8 72.2 69.4 2.4 4.0 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 1.7 1.6 3.0 1.5 68.1 66.0 -1.7 -0.1 1.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 6.0 6.0 7.4 1.6 70.2 67.6 2.3 4.0 5.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 5.1 5.5 7.8 1.8 73.1 69.3 1.8 3.3 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 5.8 6.0 7.7 1.7 71.8 69.2 2.6 4.1 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 5.4 5.4 5.9 1.6 70.4 67.9 2.2 3.6 5.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 6.3 6.5 7.5 1.9 72.5 69.1 2.7 4.3 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 4.9 4.8 4.2 1.3 67.6 65.1 1.6 3.2 4.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 6.6 7.0 8.0 2.0 73.0 69.3 2.4 4.3 6.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 4.3 4.6 5.7 1.8 72.4 69.0 0.9 2.5 3.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 4.4 4.1 3.5 1.3 66.6 64.8 0.6 2.4 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 6.3 6.6 8.2 1.9 72.6 69.7 2.6 4.3 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------