***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.11.2017.-12.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 5.1 5.0 6.2 1.5 67.8 63.1 1.9 3.4 4.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 4.4 4.3 5.8 1.4 68.0 63.5 1.2 2.7 4.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 6.5 6.6 6.2 1.5 69.1 65.1 3.5 4.9 6.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 1.2 1.2 3.6 1.5 68.4 65.0 -1.9 -0.4 0.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 4.1 3.9 3.9 1.4 66.9 64.1 0.8 2.3 3.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 3.4 3.0 1.8 1.1 63.0 61.6 0.0 1.7 3.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 4.4 4.4 5.9 1.5 68.5 63.4 1.3 2.8 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 -0.8 -1.0 2.1 1.3 65.0 63.0 -4.1 -2.5 -0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 4.8 4.7 4.3 1.4 67.1 64.3 1.6 3.1 4.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 4.4 4.2 2.9 1.4 66.0 63.7 1.3 2.8 4.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 4.4 4.0 3.2 1.3 65.3 63.1 0.8 2.5 4.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 2.1 2.9 2.5 1.2 64.1 62.3 -0.2 1.5 3.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 2.7 3.2 2.2 1.1 62.2 60.8 0.4 2.0 3.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 4.8 4.8 4.1 1.5 67.6 64.5 2.4 3.6 4.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 4.5 4.7 4.6 1.6 70.8 66.7 1.2 2.8 4.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 5.1 4.6 2.7 1.2 64.0 62.2 1.6 3.3 4.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 4.3 4.2 5.6 1.4 67.8 63.1 1.4 2.8 4.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 43 57 100 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.4 65.6 63.6 -0.1 1.2 2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 4.5 4.5 5.8 1.4 68.2 64.0 1.5 3.0 4.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 -1.0 0.1 0.9 1.4 64.2 62.2 -3.5 -1.5 0.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 4.5 4.4 5.4 1.4 67.4 64.0 1.3 2.8 4.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 4.0 3.9 5.5 1.4 68.2 63.7 1.1 2.5 3.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 4.4 4.4 5.7 1.4 68.5 64.7 1.6 2.9 4.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 4.0 3.9 3.8 1.5 67.6 65.0 1.1 2.5 3.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 4.7 4.6 5.0 1.5 67.5 63.3 1.6 3.1 4.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 2.9 3.4 1.9 0.9 60.6 59.4 0.5 2.3 4.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 5.1 5.0 5.7 1.5 67.8 63.0 1.3 3.1 4.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 3.2 3.2 3.7 1.6 68.8 65.6 -0.4 1.3 2.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 1.3 2.2 1.9 1.4 65.4 63.3 -0.8 0.8 2.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 4.7 4.8 6.0 1.5 68.7 64.0 1.6 3.1 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------