***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.10.2017.-19.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 4.3 4.5 6.4 0.5 59.8 57.6 3.0 3.9 4.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 3.7 3.9 6.0 0.5 59.4 57.6 2.3 3.3 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 5.9 6.1 6.4 0.5 60.5 58.3 4.5 5.5 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 1.5 1.4 3.9 0.8 65.1 61.9 -0.5 0.5 1.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 3.1 3.3 4.3 0.5 60.0 57.7 1.9 2.8 3.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 2.4 2.5 2.0 0.3 56.7 55.2 1.4 2.2 2.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 3.7 3.9 6.1 0.5 60.5 58.5 2.3 3.3 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -1.2 -1.3 2.2 0.3 55.1 53.9 -2.5 -1.5 -0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 4.0 4.2 4.5 0.5 59.6 57.4 2.8 3.7 4.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 3.7 3.7 3.0 0.3 56.6 55.1 2.5 3.3 4.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 3.2 3.3 3.6 0.4 57.7 55.9 2.1 2.9 3.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 2.4 2.4 2.9 0.3 56.2 54.8 1.3 2.1 2.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 2.7 2.7 2.7 0.3 55.6 54.1 1.6 2.4 3.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 4.4 4.6 4.4 0.6 61.1 59.0 3.2 4.0 4.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 4.1 4.2 5.1 1.0 69.8 65.9 2.4 3.2 4.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 3.9 4.1 3.2 0.4 58.5 56.6 2.8 3.7 4.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 3.7 3.9 5.9 0.5 59.8 58.0 2.4 3.4 4.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 2.1 2.2 2.4 0.4 57.2 55.7 1.1 1.9 2.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 3.8 4.0 6.0 0.5 59.7 57.9 2.5 3.4 4.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 -0.5 -0.7 1.0 0.1 52.4 52.0 -1.8 -0.9 0.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 3.8 3.9 5.6 0.5 59.6 57.4 2.5 3.4 4.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 3.2 3.3 5.8 0.4 59.2 57.5 1.9 2.9 3.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 3.7 3.9 5.9 0.5 60.6 58.6 2.5 3.4 4.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 3.4 3.5 4.1 0.5 60.0 58.1 2.2 3.0 3.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 4.1 4.2 5.4 0.5 59.3 57.2 2.8 3.7 4.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 3.1 2.9 2.4 0.1 52.8 52.1 2.0 2.8 3.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 4.3 4.4 6.0 0.5 60.0 57.6 2.7 3.8 4.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 44 56 100 2.8 2.7 4.1 0.8 66.5 63.0 1.1 1.9 2.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 1.9 1.8 1.8 0.2 54.6 53.7 0.5 1.5 2.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 4.1 4.3 6.2 0.5 60.2 58.2 2.7 3.7 4.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------