***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.10.2017.-29.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 12.0 9.7 13.3 -3.2 11.9 22.7 13.2 15.3 17.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 12.3 10.5 13.6 -3.0 13.9 23.8 13.4 15.3 17.1 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 12.5 10.3 13.5 -3.5 11.6 21.9 13.8 15.8 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 6.2 5.3 10.5 -2.5 19.1 29.7 7.2 9.2 11.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 12.7 10.0 11.4 -3.8 9.5 20.5 13.9 15.9 17.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 11.9 9.1 9.5 -4.3 7.6 18.3 13.3 15.2 17.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 12.1 10.2 13.4 -3.1 12.7 22.6 13.2 15.1 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 4.4 1.7 9.7 -4.4 7.7 18.4 5.6 7.4 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 12.9 10.4 12.4 -3.6 10.3 21.4 14.2 16.2 18.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 75 25 0 100 12.5 9.8 10.7 -4.4 8.7 18.9 13.8 15.7 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 77 23 0 100 12.6 9.5 11.5 -4.3 7.3 17.6 14.1 16.1 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 77 23 0 100 12.3 9.3 10.4 -4.2 7.3 18.3 13.7 15.6 17.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 82 18 0 100 12.6 8.5 10.7 -4.9 3.9 12.6 14.2 16.1 17.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 12.9 11.0 12.8 -3.7 13.3 22.0 14.2 16.3 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 12.6 12.3 13.1 -1.9 22.7 33.2 13.4 15.0 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 79 21 0 100 13.2 9.9 10.9 -4.3 6.3 16.5 14.8 16.7 18.5 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 12.1 10.6 13.3 -2.9 15.2 24.8 13.0 14.8 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 75 25 0 100 11.7 9.1 10.3 -4.4 9.6 19.3 13.1 15.1 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 12.3 10.5 13.8 -3.0 14.5 24.5 13.4 15.4 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 80 20 0 100 9.1 5.9 8.1 -5.0 6.3 15.8 10.6 12.5 14.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 12.7 10.2 13.1 -3.7 10.0 20.4 14.0 15.9 17.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 12.6 11.0 13.5 -2.9 15.2 24.6 13.6 15.6 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 12.6 11.0 13.9 -2.9 15.7 25.9 13.6 15.7 17.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 12.9 10.5 12.5 -3.9 11.3 20.8 14.2 16.4 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 12.1 10.0 12.1 -3.3 11.5 21.8 13.3 15.1 16.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 79 21 0 100 12.7 9.6 9.7 -4.2 5.9 17.9 14.0 15.8 17.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 12.4 10.2 12.8 -3.3 11.4 21.8 13.6 15.5 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 12.4 11.5 11.4 -2.6 18.6 29.1 13.4 15.2 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 76 24 0 100 8.3 5.5 9.6 -4.7 8.3 17.9 9.7 11.7 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 12.2 10.2 13.5 -3.1 12.8 23.1 13.3 15.2 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------