***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.10.2017.-05.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 16.7 18.7 16.9 3.3 83.9 77.0 12.4 14.3 16.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 16.2 17.5 16.8 3.1 82.0 75.6 12.1 13.8 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 17.3 19.3 17.5 3.6 84.5 77.4 12.6 14.7 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 11.3 14.2 14.5 4.1 88.8 80.1 6.2 8.3 10.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 17.2 19.0 15.7 3.6 84.2 77.8 12.5 14.5 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 16.9 18.3 14.4 3.6 82.2 76.6 12.1 14.1 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 15.9 17.0 16.6 3.0 80.8 74.8 11.8 13.6 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 9.5 10.8 14.6 3.4 81.0 75.7 5.4 7.2 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 17.4 19.3 16.5 3.6 84.2 77.5 12.8 14.8 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 17.0 18.6 15.6 3.6 82.2 76.2 12.4 14.4 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 17.6 19.3 16.0 3.6 83.1 77.2 12.7 14.8 16.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 17.3 18.9 15.1 3.4 82.3 76.8 12.5 14.6 16.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 17.4 18.6 15.3 3.1 79.4 74.6 12.8 14.8 16.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 17.4 19.0 16.8 3.5 81.4 75.2 12.4 14.6 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 15.3 17.6 15.5 3.7 88.9 79.6 11.8 13.3 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 18.3 19.7 15.4 3.5 82.2 76.8 13.5 15.5 17.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 15.2 16.2 16.3 2.9 80.2 74.1 11.3 13.0 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 16.0 17.3 15.3 3.5 80.1 74.8 11.4 13.4 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 16.6 18.1 17.2 3.4 83.2 76.5 12.1 14.0 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 14.5 15.2 13.1 2.9 76.1 71.7 10.1 12.1 13.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 17.3 19.0 17.1 3.5 84.0 77.3 12.7 14.6 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 16.2 17.1 16.3 2.8 79.7 74.0 11.9 13.7 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 16.7 18.6 17.7 3.7 85.1 77.9 12.1 14.0 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 17.6 19.3 16.9 3.7 82.2 76.0 12.7 14.9 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 15.9 17.8 15.8 3.4 84.4 77.2 11.8 13.6 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 17.0 18.2 14.4 3.2 81.3 75.9 12.7 14.6 16.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 16.7 18.5 16.3 3.2 82.7 76.1 12.5 14.4 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 16.3 18.8 15.1 4.0 88.2 79.5 12.0 13.8 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 13.7 14.7 14.5 3.2 77.7 73.1 8.9 11.0 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 16.2 17.6 17.0 3.2 82.7 76.0 11.9 13.7 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------