***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.11.2017.-12.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 13.9 14.5 13.4 2.1 74.4 68.6 10.0 11.8 13.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 13.1 13.6 13.4 2.0 74.2 68.7 9.6 11.2 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 14.3 15.0 13.9 2.3 75.3 69.5 10.4 12.2 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 7.9 8.7 11.2 2.5 77.3 71.6 4.1 5.8 7.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 14.4 14.9 12.0 2.3 74.1 69.1 10.4 12.2 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 14.0 14.0 11.1 2.1 70.6 65.9 9.5 11.5 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 13.1 13.5 13.3 1.9 73.2 67.9 9.3 11.0 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 6.3 6.6 11.4 2.3 72.8 68.3 2.7 4.3 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 14.9 15.4 12.8 2.3 74.1 68.9 10.7 12.6 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 14.1 14.5 12.1 2.4 73.2 68.3 10.2 12.0 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 14.9 15.3 12.1 2.3 73.2 68.3 10.5 12.5 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 14.5 14.8 11.8 2.2 73.1 68.4 10.2 12.2 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 14.8 14.8 11.4 2.0 70.2 66.1 10.2 12.3 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 14.9 15.3 13.1 2.3 72.2 67.5 10.9 12.8 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 12.9 13.7 11.8 2.5 78.6 72.7 9.5 11.0 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 15.3 15.6 11.8 2.2 72.4 67.6 10.7 12.8 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 12.5 12.8 13.1 1.8 72.3 67.1 9.3 10.8 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 12.9 13.3 12.1 2.4 72.1 67.5 9.1 10.9 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 13.7 14.3 13.7 2.2 75.0 69.3 9.9 11.6 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 11.4 11.4 10.0 2.1 70.3 66.5 7.2 9.1 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 14.4 14.9 13.2 2.2 74.0 68.6 10.4 12.2 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 13.1 13.6 13.1 1.9 72.7 67.4 9.8 11.4 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 13.8 14.5 14.0 2.3 75.3 69.5 10.0 11.8 13.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 15.2 15.7 13.1 2.4 73.4 68.3 10.9 12.9 14.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 13.4 13.9 11.9 2.1 74.4 68.8 9.5 11.3 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 14.4 14.6 11.3 2.2 74.1 69.4 10.0 11.9 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 14.0 14.5 12.8 2.0 73.6 67.9 9.9 11.8 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 12.7 13.2 11.5 2.5 77.0 71.3 9.6 10.9 12.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 10.6 10.8 11.4 2.2 70.5 66.5 6.5 8.4 10.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 13.2 13.8 13.5 2.1 74.6 69.0 9.5 11.2 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------