***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.11.2017.-19.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 11.9 12.2 10.8 0.8 59.5 56.1 8.6 10.9 13.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 10.9 11.2 10.8 0.9 59.7 56.1 7.7 9.9 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 8.1 12.4 11.2 1.0 60.6 56.8 8.6 10.9 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 6.1 7.0 8.6 1.3 63.8 59.3 2.8 5.1 7.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.7 12.1 9.3 1.0 60.7 57.3 8.6 10.8 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 7.9 11.5 8.4 0.9 58.9 56.4 8.3 10.4 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 10.7 10.9 10.6 0.8 59.0 55.6 7.5 9.8 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 4.0 4.3 8.7 1.0 60.1 57.3 1.5 3.3 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.7 10.1 1.0 60.0 56.8 9.0 11.4 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 11.6 11.8 9.4 1.0 59.6 56.7 8.5 10.7 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 12.0 12.4 9.4 1.0 60.8 57.3 8.8 11.0 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 8.3 12.3 9.1 1.0 61.2 57.7 8.7 10.9 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 8.5 12.1 8.7 0.9 59.0 56.5 8.9 11.0 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 8.3 12.7 10.4 0.9 58.3 55.6 8.9 11.5 13.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.5 10.3 9.2 1.4 65.4 60.4 7.3 8.9 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.4 12.9 9.1 1.0 60.6 57.2 9.3 11.5 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 10.3 10.4 10.5 0.7 58.5 55.1 7.3 9.4 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 7.3 10.9 9.4 0.9 58.5 56.0 7.7 9.9 11.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 7.6 11.8 11.0 1.0 60.5 56.6 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 5.0 8.7 7.3 0.7 57.3 55.8 5.4 7.7 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.9 12.2 10.5 0.9 59.8 56.6 8.7 11.0 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 11.0 11.2 10.6 0.8 59.2 55.7 7.7 10.0 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 11.3 11.7 11.4 1.0 60.9 56.9 8.1 10.3 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 8.7 12.9 10.4 0.9 59.2 56.2 9.2 11.6 13.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.8 11.2 9.3 0.9 59.9 56.7 7.9 10.0 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 8.2 11.3 8.6 1.0 61.2 58.2 8.4 10.2 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.8 12.0 10.2 0.8 58.7 55.7 8.6 10.8 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.1 10.8 8.9 1.3 64.0 59.4 7.5 9.3 11.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 4.5 8.2 8.7 0.8 57.4 55.4 4.9 7.3 9.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 10.9 11.2 10.8 0.9 60.0 56.4 7.8 10.0 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------