***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.10.2017.-19.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 13.5 14.1 13.6 0.8 64.0 60.4 11.8 13.1 14.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 12.9 13.5 13.6 0.7 63.5 60.2 11.4 12.6 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 13.8 14.5 14.0 0.8 64.7 60.9 12.2 13.4 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 8.5 8.8 11.2 1.3 73.2 66.6 6.0 7.1 8.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 13.8 14.3 12.1 0.8 63.7 60.0 12.1 13.3 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 13.3 13.5 10.9 0.6 59.8 57.5 11.6 12.8 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 12.7 13.2 13.5 0.6 61.6 58.9 11.2 12.4 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 5.9 6.1 11.1 0.5 59.4 57.6 4.5 5.5 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 14.2 14.8 12.9 0.8 64.4 60.6 12.5 13.7 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 13.6 13.9 11.9 0.6 60.7 58.2 12.0 13.2 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 14.1 14.4 12.2 0.6 61.3 58.5 12.3 13.6 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.8 14.1 11.6 0.6 61.0 58.6 12.1 13.3 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 14.0 13.9 11.5 0.3 54.7 54.0 12.3 13.5 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 14.2 14.7 13.3 0.7 61.7 59.1 12.5 13.8 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 13.2 13.6 12.4 1.4 76.7 68.9 11.1 12.0 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.9 11.8 0.6 60.2 57.8 12.8 14.1 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 12.3 12.7 13.3 0.6 61.6 58.8 10.9 12.0 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 12.7 12.9 11.8 0.6 59.1 57.5 11.2 12.3 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 13.2 13.9 13.9 0.9 65.3 61.5 11.6 12.8 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 10.8 10.5 9.6 0.2 52.6 53.1 9.1 10.3 11.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 13.9 14.4 13.5 0.7 63.1 59.6 12.2 13.4 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 13.0 13.5 13.4 0.6 61.8 59.0 11.5 12.7 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 13.3 14.2 14.2 1.0 67.7 63.4 11.7 12.9 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 14.4 14.8 13.2 0.8 62.2 59.5 12.7 13.9 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 12.9 13.4 12.3 0.8 64.1 60.4 11.3 12.5 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 13.5 13.7 11.0 0.5 59.5 57.8 11.9 13.1 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 13.6 14.0 13.0 0.7 62.4 59.3 11.9 13.1 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 13.4 13.6 11.7 1.3 73.0 66.3 11.4 12.3 13.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 10.0 10.0 11.0 0.4 55.7 55.1 8.4 9.6 10.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 12.9 13.5 13.7 0.8 63.8 60.4 11.4 12.5 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------