***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.10.2017.-29.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 10.6 17.6 22.9 224.3 88.1 79.4 2.5 4.9 8.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 9.3 13.4 17.1 178.9 82.5 69.8 2.5 4.7 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 11.5 19.3 23.7 229.9 87.9 78.1 3.1 5.8 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 11 89 100 15.2 38.6 37.7 355.5 96.1 87.2 3.4 6.5 11.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 7 93 100 14.2 34.9 36.7 365.4 96.3 90.7 3.2 6.1 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 11.9 29.2 34.5 346.2 95.8 90.1 2.4 4.7 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 7.6 10.6 17.7 183.2 83.0 72.5 2.3 4.0 6.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 6 94 100 18.0 42.5 44.0 347.5 95.5 90.1 3.6 7.2 12.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 12.4 28.5 35.3 345.8 95.8 88.9 3.1 5.7 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 7 93 100 16.3 42.7 44.1 366.3 96.7 90.8 3.4 6.7 11.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 4 96 100 13.1 37.1 44.3 426.7 97.9 92.5 3.0 5.6 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 11.9 28.0 38.5 356.2 95.8 90.7 2.5 4.9 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 14.7 43.8 49.6 426.2 97.7 94.1 2.7 5.6 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 17.2 29.6 30.5 229.2 88.3 79.2 3.5 7.3 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 10.3 29.9 41.0 426.0 97.1 86.3 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 12.4 33.9 40.5 383.8 96.5 91.6 2.1 4.5 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 9.3 12.9 15.4 158.6 79.1 65.7 2.1 4.5 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 9 91 100 14.5 32.0 38.9 301.7 94.3 87.7 3.0 6.0 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 10.9 15.8 17.0 170.2 81.1 68.6 2.5 5.2 9.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 8 92 100 17.0 35.2 44.3 286.9 92.8 87.8 3.2 6.5 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 13 87 100 13.2 28.6 31.5 304.2 93.8 86.0 2.9 5.6 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 7.8 15.0 14.9 147.2 76.9 61.9 2.7 5.8 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 12.0 17.0 17.9 164.4 79.7 68.7 3.1 6.2 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 15.2 31.4 33.2 282.9 93.0 84.4 3.4 6.6 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 14 86 100 11.5 24.9 30.7 284.2 92.4 86.0 1.9 4.3 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 8 92 100 15.5 34.7 33.3 307.1 94.0 89.2 2.9 6.0 10.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 9.5 15.8 24.0 231.3 88.6 81.0 2.3 4.4 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 10 90 100 10.6 29.4 40.2 417.3 97.3 88.5 2.4 4.6 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 8 92 100 20.0 37.9 38.7 282.1 92.9 87.0 4.9 8.9 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 9.1 14.0 18.5 193.8 84.6 72.5 2.3 4.5 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------