***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.10.2017.-05.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 2.9 7.2 9.0 85.8 59.8 44.9 2.7 5.2 8.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.7 9.0 10.6 108.3 66.7 47.2 2.5 5.1 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 2.7 7.1 8.5 81.1 57.1 41.9 2.6 5.4 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 2.4 4.9 7.3 59.2 48.8 38.0 2.5 5.2 9.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.7 4.8 6.8 58.8 47.7 37.0 2.6 5.2 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.1 3.5 6.6 57.8 47.4 37.5 2.0 3.9 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.7 9.3 11.2 117.5 69.6 50.1 2.5 4.9 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 3.0 5.4 6.4 52.7 43.8 32.5 3.4 6.8 11.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 2.7 5.0 6.3 57.9 47.8 36.3 3.0 5.3 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 2.5 4.4 6.1 50.6 42.8 32.2 3.0 5.7 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 2.3 3.3 5.9 49.2 41.4 31.5 2.4 4.6 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 2.9 5.2 6.2 55.0 45.7 35.2 3.1 5.9 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 2.1 3.0 4.6 38.7 36.3 24.6 2.6 5.2 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 4.4 12.0 10.4 81.6 57.0 40.6 4.5 9.3 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 1.9 3.4 6.0 50.6 46.0 34.4 1.9 4.0 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 2.3 3.9 6.8 60.7 47.6 37.6 2.3 4.2 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.5 9.4 10.9 112.5 68.6 49.9 2.1 4.7 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 3.2 5.8 6.9 57.2 46.0 35.0 3.4 6.7 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.1 9.5 10.3 102.9 64.9 45.9 2.9 5.8 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 2.9 5.3 8.1 52.6 42.7 30.8 3.5 6.9 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 2.5 5.4 7.4 69.8 52.7 39.8 2.5 5.0 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 7.4 9.0 10.7 102.5 65.1 46.9 2.3 5.0 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.4 9.8 10.4 99.4 63.6 46.1 3.1 6.2 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 3.1 6.8 7.6 65.5 49.5 35.8 3.4 6.9 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 2.7 6.8 9.2 77.9 56.8 41.8 2.8 5.5 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 1.8 3.5 6.9 55.8 46.0 33.5 2.0 4.1 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.5 7.1 9.9 89.3 61.0 45.6 2.3 4.8 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 1.9 3.4 6.1 52.4 45.7 35.3 1.9 4.0 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 4.9 8.6 8.0 59.1 45.6 34.0 5.3 10.0 16.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 3.0 8.5 10.1 100.9 64.5 47.1 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------