***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.11.2017.-12.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 3.6 9.6 8.2 77.6 56.4 39.5 4.0 7.7 13.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 4.1 10.9 7.8 84.4 58.9 41.9 3.9 7.9 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 3.8 9.5 8.1 78.0 56.2 39.1 3.7 7.6 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 3.9 10.5 9.6 76.4 55.9 38.2 3.7 8.3 15.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 3.1 7.3 8.8 70.2 52.1 36.8 3.0 6.6 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 2.9 6.5 8.8 68.4 51.6 38.0 3.1 6.1 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.7 9.8 7.7 83.2 58.7 41.9 3.5 7.2 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 4.3 10.2 8.9 64.3 48.4 33.7 4.4 10.7 20.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 3.1 7.0 9.2 71.9 51.9 37.3 3.2 6.6 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 3.3 6.8 9.2 66.3 48.7 34.7 3.5 7.1 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 3.1 6.4 7.8 63.6 48.9 33.3 3.2 6.7 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 2.8 6.5 8.3 66.5 50.9 35.2 3.0 6.3 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 3.3 5.8 7.0 54.6 44.4 30.1 3.5 7.3 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 4.9 11.6 10.7 81.7 56.4 39.4 5.1 9.5 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 3.0 8.7 9.6 77.4 57.5 38.3 3.0 6.6 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 3.4 7.1 8.1 66.0 50.2 35.2 3.6 7.1 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.9 11.4 8.1 89.8 61.0 42.0 3.4 7.5 13.6 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 3.9 7.5 10.3 71.0 49.9 36.5 3.8 7.6 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.8 10.2 8.1 85.4 59.2 41.7 3.5 7.3 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 4.3 8.3 11.2 63.6 46.6 33.9 4.4 9.5 17.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 3.2 7.5 8.4 72.6 52.7 37.4 3.4 6.8 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 3.9 11.5 8.8 91.5 61.8 42.1 3.6 7.5 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.3 10.7 8.9 86.9 59.3 41.1 4.0 7.8 13.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 3.4 8.1 9.6 75.8 53.6 37.6 3.6 7.1 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 3.4 8.6 9.2 76.1 55.6 39.6 3.1 6.8 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 2.9 6.6 8.1 62.4 49.5 34.4 2.9 6.6 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 3.0 8.1 9.0 80.0 57.2 40.9 3.1 6.2 10.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 2.6 6.9 9.1 74.0 55.2 38.1 2.6 5.5 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 5.1 11.2 11.1 71.9 50.3 36.7 5.2 11.2 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.7 9.3 7.9 82.0 58.4 41.7 3.5 6.9 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------