***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.11.2017.-19.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 3.4 10.5 10.7 87.7 59.7 41.6 3.8 7.5 12.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 3.5 10.9 10.5 90.8 61.1 41.8 3.6 7.3 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 4.3 13.1 10.1 85.1 58.5 40.5 4.6 9.5 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 6.1 14.8 11.1 85.9 58.7 43.0 5.7 11.0 18.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 5.0 13.7 10.9 87.5 58.6 43.7 4.9 10.0 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 6.6 14.4 10.4 81.8 56.3 43.7 6.1 11.6 19.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 3.5 10.6 10.7 94.1 62.4 42.7 3.7 7.1 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 8.1 18.6 11.5 82.3 56.3 42.9 7.7 15.1 25.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 5.4 13.5 11.2 87.7 58.3 43.4 5.4 10.3 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 6.0 14.7 11.7 84.8 57.0 43.1 5.7 11.4 19.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 6.0 14.4 10.4 83.1 56.6 41.3 6.0 11.6 19.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 6.2 15.1 10.2 80.6 55.8 42.9 5.8 12.2 21.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 7.2 13.9 9.8 73.8 52.4 40.5 6.5 12.8 21.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 6.1 15.4 12.2 83.8 57.3 42.1 5.9 12.0 20.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 4.3 12.8 11.0 80.8 57.4 40.7 4.1 9.4 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 6.4 14.3 10.1 80.6 55.7 42.4 6.3 12.0 19.6 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 4.0 10.9 10.6 88.8 60.6 42.3 4.2 7.8 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 6.2 14.3 11.8 81.2 55.0 41.9 5.6 11.7 20.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 3.9 12.0 10.4 88.9 60.4 41.4 4.0 8.2 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.7 17.4 14.9 83.5 56.3 43.0 6.4 13.6 24.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 4.6 12.8 10.3 84.3 57.5 41.4 4.9 9.8 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 4.2 11.4 10.8 84.8 58.8 41.6 4.4 8.5 14.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 4.2 11.6 10.4 87.2 59.6 41.0 4.4 8.5 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 4.7 12.2 10.8 81.1 55.7 40.5 4.5 9.8 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 4.0 10.9 11.6 87.7 59.8 43.3 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 6.4 13.4 10.0 74.9 54.1 41.7 5.9 11.5 19.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 4.4 12.2 11.4 89.7 60.6 42.9 4.5 8.6 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 5.3 13.4 10.5 83.1 57.6 42.4 4.8 10.1 17.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 10.0 19.9 12.7 81.4 54.9 42.4 9.0 17.0 28.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 3.4 11.1 10.7 92.1 61.6 42.2 3.6 7.5 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------