***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.10.2017.-19.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 40.8 48.2 50.8 116.9 67.8 58.6 26.9 36.1 46.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 40.6 48.3 46.0 114.6 66.6 54.3 22.4 33.7 47.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 47.7 56.7 50.5 117.0 67.8 57.3 29.5 41.3 54.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 65.9 72.5 65.6 136.1 76.3 66.8 35.6 47.7 61.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 58.7 64.1 63.3 135.7 76.1 67.9 33.0 43.3 54.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 52.6 56.4 60.4 128.2 73.1 66.1 25.3 36.4 49.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 35.5 44.9 47.3 118.7 68.6 56.6 19.3 29.7 42.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 88.5 95.8 70.8 134.6 75.9 68.3 44.4 61.2 80.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 54.7 58.6 62.1 132.8 75.2 66.3 29.1 39.2 50.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 64.9 71.8 71.0 137.1 77.3 68.7 33.5 45.5 59.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 59.3 67.8 68.4 144.9 79.5 71.6 30.4 41.3 53.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 63.8 67.6 63.1 133.7 75.3 68.1 31.7 43.7 57.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 67.9 75.9 71.0 143.2 78.8 72.2 32.1 44.9 59.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 42.3 76.0 63.8 118.8 69.0 57.6 42.9 56.9 72.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 57.6 66.5 67.5 142.4 77.7 67.2 23.9 36.2 51.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 58.8 66.8 65.5 140.2 77.7 70.3 24.8 37.1 51.5 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 22.3 46.9 45.1 111.5 65.1 52.9 21.8 33.6 47.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 65.4 69.0 67.9 125.4 72.6 63.5 37.7 49.5 62.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 45.0 50.8 45.7 111.2 64.8 52.7 25.0 37.3 52.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 78.1 78.9 78.6 120.9 70.0 62.3 45.2 58.9 74.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 56.2 59.0 57.6 128.5 73.2 64.1 29.2 39.9 52.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 24.3 48.0 45.2 105.4 61.6 49.5 24.7 37.4 52.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 27.5 51.2 47.6 109.3 63.7 52.1 27.4 39.5 53.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 62.8 65.8 61.2 124.1 71.7 61.1 32.7 45.0 59.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 53.0 55.5 60.7 126.6 72.1 63.9 25.2 36.1 49.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 48.8 59.1 58.2 117.8 68.3 61.9 31.7 43.3 56.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 38.8 47.6 54.2 119.5 69.0 60.1 24.0 33.8 45.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 54.1 62.2 65.9 142.6 78.4 68.2 25.7 36.4 48.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 77.0 90.5 70.5 121.4 70.5 61.6 57.4 71.2 85.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 38.3 46.2 47.2 115.7 67.2 55.1 21.6 32.2 45.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------