***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.10.2016.-30.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 4.9 5.2 8.6 0.5 57.2 55.7 2.9 4.5 6.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 4.9 5.4 8.3 0.7 60.0 58.6 2.8 4.4 6.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 7.1 7.5 8.8 0.6 59.3 57.6 5.1 6.6 8.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 2.4 2.7 5.9 0.5 58.0 56.3 0.3 2.0 3.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 4.1 4.5 7.2 0.5 60.0 57.9 2.3 3.7 5.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 4.7 4.8 5.2 1.1 70.5 67.6 1.8 3.1 4.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 4.7 5.1 8.3 0.6 58.9 57.6 2.8 4.3 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 1.1 1.2 5.5 1.0 69.0 65.6 -2.0 -0.5 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 6.2 6.1 7.4 0.9 66.1 63.1 3.2 4.7 6.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 5.8 5.9 6.2 0.9 67.9 64.5 3.1 4.4 5.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 44 56 100 5.3 5.3 7.0 0.8 66.0 63.3 2.6 4.0 5.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 3.7 4.5 6.1 0.8 65.5 62.9 1.9 3.3 4.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 4.9 4.7 6.0 0.7 64.1 62.2 2.4 3.6 4.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 5.5 6.4 7.4 0.9 66.1 63.0 3.6 5.1 6.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 47 53 100 5.6 5.9 7.8 1.0 68.7 66.0 3.1 4.4 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 5.3 6.1 6.3 0.8 65.5 63.1 3.5 4.8 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 4.9 5.4 8.1 0.7 60.4 59.1 3.0 4.5 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 4.7 4.7 5.9 1.0 67.5 64.1 1.9 3.3 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 4.9 5.5 8.3 0.7 60.9 59.4 3.0 4.5 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 1.7 1.7 4.7 1.0 68.6 65.1 -1.2 0.2 1.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 4.7 5.2 8.3 0.6 60.6 58.5 2.8 4.3 5.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 4.2 4.7 8.2 0.7 60.3 59.0 2.4 3.8 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 4.9 5.6 8.4 0.8 64.0 61.8 3.0 4.4 5.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 5.6 5.5 7.4 0.9 65.6 62.8 2.7 4.2 5.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 5.2 5.3 8.0 0.4 56.1 54.7 3.3 4.8 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 5.5 5.3 5.8 0.8 65.1 62.9 2.9 4.2 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 5.1 5.4 8.3 0.5 57.9 56.3 2.9 4.6 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 3.5 4.1 6.5 0.7 62.6 60.6 1.8 3.2 4.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 4.6 4.6 5.3 1.0 68.9 65.3 1.2 2.8 4.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 5.1 5.5 8.5 0.6 58.8 57.4 3.0 4.7 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------