***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.10.2016.-06.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 1.8 2.1 5.1 -1.9 28.4 32.2 2.6 4.3 5.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 1.6 1.8 4.8 -1.7 29.2 32.8 2.2 3.7 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 3.9 4.2 5.4 -1.6 30.5 33.7 4.5 6.0 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 -1.1 -0.8 2.8 -1.4 32.2 35.5 -0.7 1.0 2.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 0.9 1.5 3.7 -1.5 32.0 35.1 1.6 3.2 4.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 0.4 1.0 1.6 -1.3 34.1 37.2 0.9 2.5 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 1.5 1.8 4.7 -1.8 28.7 32.1 2.2 3.6 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 -2.9 -1.8 2.1 -1.1 37.0 39.1 -2.2 -0.5 1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 1.8 2.5 3.9 -1.4 32.6 35.3 2.5 4.1 5.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 1.7 2.6 2.7 -1.2 35.1 37.6 2.4 3.9 5.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 1.0 1.8 3.3 -1.3 33.3 36.1 1.8 3.4 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 0.2 1.1 2.6 -1.2 35.1 37.6 0.9 2.5 3.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 0.4 1.1 2.5 -1.4 33.9 36.9 1.0 2.6 4.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 2.8 3.3 3.7 -1.4 33.6 36.1 3.3 4.6 5.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 1.7 2.0 4.1 -1.5 29.9 33.3 2.3 3.8 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 1.9 2.5 2.7 -1.4 33.0 36.1 2.5 4.0 5.5 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 1.8 2.1 4.6 -1.7 29.4 32.8 2.4 3.8 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 0.6 1.3 2.3 -1.2 36.5 38.7 1.0 2.4 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 1.8 2.1 4.8 -1.7 29.8 33.3 2.4 3.8 5.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 -2.1 -1.3 1.1 -1.1 38.4 40.6 -1.9 -0.3 1.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 1.5 2.0 4.9 -1.6 30.8 33.8 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 1.4 1.6 4.7 -1.6 29.6 33.1 1.9 3.3 4.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 2.0 2.4 4.9 -1.5 31.0 34.3 2.5 3.9 5.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 1.5 2.2 3.7 -1.3 34.1 36.4 2.1 3.4 4.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 1.8 2.1 4.3 -1.9 28.7 32.4 2.6 4.2 5.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 0.9 1.5 2.3 -1.4 33.3 36.4 1.4 2.9 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 1.4 1.7 4.7 -2.0 28.4 32.1 2.3 4.0 5.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 0.3 0.8 3.1 -1.4 31.8 35.0 0.9 2.4 3.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 0.0 1.0 1.7 -1.1 37.7 39.9 0.5 2.2 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 1.9 2.1 5.0 -1.8 29.1 32.6 2.5 4.1 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------