***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.10.2016.-20.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 2.5 3.6 5.8 -0.1 48.0 48.0 2.7 3.7 4.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 3.6 3.1 5.4 0.0 49.2 49.0 2.1 3.1 4.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 5.7 5.2 5.8 -0.1 48.8 48.6 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 0.7 0.3 3.3 0.0 49.9 48.8 -0.7 0.3 1.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 3.0 2.6 4.1 0.0 49.7 48.8 1.7 2.6 3.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 2.3 2.2 2.2 0.2 55.5 54.3 1.2 2.0 2.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 3.5 3.0 5.4 -0.1 48.3 48.3 2.2 3.1 4.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -1.4 -1.4 2.6 0.3 55.9 54.3 -2.7 -1.8 -0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 3.8 3.6 4.4 0.1 52.6 51.1 2.6 3.5 4.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 3.5 3.3 3.2 0.2 54.4 52.9 2.3 3.1 3.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 1.7 2.8 3.7 0.1 52.4 50.9 1.8 2.7 3.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 2.3 2.1 3.1 0.2 53.8 52.4 1.1 1.9 2.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 2.6 2.4 2.9 0.1 52.7 51.8 1.4 2.2 3.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 4.2 4.0 4.2 0.1 52.6 51.3 3.0 3.9 4.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 3.4 3.2 4.5 0.1 52.6 51.0 2.2 3.1 3.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 3.8 3.6 3.2 0.1 52.4 51.0 2.6 3.5 4.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 3.5 3.1 5.2 -0.1 48.8 48.7 2.2 3.2 4.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 1.9 1.9 2.7 0.2 55.0 53.6 0.9 1.6 2.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 3.6 3.2 5.4 0.0 49.7 49.3 2.3 3.2 4.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 -0.7 -0.7 1.6 0.4 57.1 56.1 -2.1 -1.1 -0.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 3.6 3.2 5.4 0.0 49.5 49.0 2.3 3.2 4.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 3.0 2.6 5.2 -0.1 48.5 48.3 1.8 2.7 3.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 3.6 3.2 5.4 0.0 50.7 49.8 2.4 3.2 4.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 3.2 2.9 4.1 0.1 52.3 51.2 2.0 2.8 3.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.5 3.4 4.9 -0.1 47.6 47.6 2.6 3.5 4.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 2.9 2.7 2.7 0.1 52.9 52.4 1.8 2.6 3.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.3 3.5 5.4 -0.1 48.5 48.2 2.5 3.6 4.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 2.1 1.8 3.5 0.1 51.4 50.0 0.9 1.7 2.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 1.7 1.7 2.3 0.3 56.4 54.8 0.2 1.3 2.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 3.9 3.4 5.6 -0.1 48.7 48.6 2.5 3.5 4.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------