***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.10.2016.-06.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 11.2 12.2 12.5 -1.3 35.8 38.3 11.8 13.8 15.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 10.9 11.9 12.4 -1.4 34.7 37.4 11.7 13.5 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 11.6 12.7 12.9 -1.2 37.1 39.3 12.2 14.2 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.4 6.8 10.0 -0.9 39.8 41.7 5.9 8.0 10.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 11.3 12.6 11.2 -1.1 38.0 40.4 12.0 14.0 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 11.1 12.4 10.1 -1.2 37.8 41.2 11.8 13.8 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 10.8 11.5 12.2 -1.4 33.8 36.7 11.4 13.2 14.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 4.3 5.6 10.4 -0.9 40.3 42.8 4.8 6.7 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 11.8 13.0 12.0 -1.1 38.7 41.0 12.3 14.4 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 11.5 12.9 11.1 -1.0 39.9 42.3 12.1 14.0 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 11.6 12.9 11.5 -1.2 37.4 40.5 12.3 14.4 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 11.4 12.9 10.9 -1.0 38.6 41.6 12.2 14.2 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 11.6 12.8 11.1 -1.4 35.6 39.5 12.4 14.5 16.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 11.8 13.0 12.2 -1.0 40.0 41.7 12.1 14.2 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 11.2 11.9 11.3 -1.1 37.2 39.8 11.5 13.0 14.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 12.3 13.5 11.1 -1.2 36.7 40.1 13.0 15.0 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 10.5 11.2 12.0 -1.4 34.4 37.3 11.1 12.8 14.4 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 10.7 12.2 10.9 -0.8 41.8 43.7 11.2 13.1 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 11.0 12.0 12.6 -1.3 35.7 38.2 11.7 13.6 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 9.2 10.7 9.3 -0.8 42.1 44.2 9.6 11.6 13.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 11.7 12.7 12.6 -1.2 37.6 39.9 12.2 14.1 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 10.8 11.7 12.1 -1.3 35.0 37.7 11.5 13.4 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 11.0 12.2 12.8 -1.2 37.7 39.7 11.6 13.6 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 11.9 13.4 12.2 -1.0 40.4 42.2 12.4 14.5 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 10.7 11.7 11.3 -1.3 35.9 38.4 11.4 13.2 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 11.6 12.8 10.3 -1.2 36.6 40.5 12.4 14.3 16.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 11.4 12.3 11.9 -1.3 35.3 37.9 12.0 13.9 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 11.4 12.5 10.7 -1.0 39.4 41.7 11.8 13.5 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.9 9.6 10.4 -0.8 42.4 44.3 8.4 10.6 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 10.7 11.7 12.5 -1.3 35.0 37.6 11.5 13.3 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------