***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.11.2016.-13.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 12.5 13.0 12.0 1.0 61.9 60.4 10.0 11.8 13.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 11.5 11.8 11.8 0.8 59.4 58.7 9.3 10.9 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 12.8 13.4 12.3 1.0 61.6 60.4 10.4 12.2 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 7.8 7.3 9.7 1.3 64.6 63.1 4.2 5.8 7.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 14.5 13.8 10.8 1.3 64.2 62.6 10.4 12.3 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 13.7 13.4 10.6 1.8 67.5 65.1 9.4 11.4 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 11.4 11.7 11.7 0.7 59.0 58.4 9.1 10.8 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 6.1 5.6 10.2 1.4 63.8 62.3 2.8 4.3 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 14.8 14.1 11.4 1.3 63.5 62.0 10.8 12.6 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 13.9 13.3 10.9 1.4 63.5 62.0 10.2 11.9 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 14.8 14.1 10.9 1.4 64.8 63.0 10.6 12.5 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 14.2 13.6 10.6 1.3 64.2 62.7 10.2 12.1 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 14.4 13.8 10.5 1.4 64.3 62.6 10.2 12.2 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 14.7 13.9 11.6 1.1 60.9 59.7 10.9 12.7 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 12.2 11.9 10.3 1.2 65.3 63.2 9.2 10.6 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 15.2 14.6 10.8 1.5 65.4 63.3 10.7 12.8 14.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 11.0 11.2 11.6 0.7 58.3 57.9 8.9 10.5 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 12.7 12.1 10.8 1.3 62.3 60.9 9.1 10.8 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 12.1 12.4 12.0 0.8 60.0 59.3 9.8 11.5 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.8 10.4 8.9 1.2 61.8 60.6 7.3 9.1 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 14.3 13.6 11.9 1.1 62.8 61.5 10.5 12.3 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.8 11.9 11.5 0.6 58.0 57.7 9.6 11.2 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 12.2 12.6 12.3 1.0 60.9 59.9 9.8 11.6 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 14.9 14.2 11.6 1.2 61.9 60.6 11.0 12.9 14.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 13.3 12.6 10.6 1.1 63.0 61.6 9.5 11.3 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 13.6 13.2 10.2 1.3 64.9 63.2 9.9 11.7 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.5 13.1 11.5 1.0 62.2 60.7 10.0 11.8 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 12.3 11.9 10.2 1.4 65.7 63.8 9.5 10.8 12.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 10.4 9.8 10.2 1.3 62.0 60.7 6.7 8.5 10.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 11.7 12.0 11.9 0.8 60.0 59.2 9.4 11.1 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------