***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.10.2016.-20.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 13.3 12.3 12.1 -0.4 43.1 44.6 11.5 12.8 14.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 10.9 11.8 12.2 -0.4 43.3 44.9 11.1 12.3 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 13.6 12.8 12.6 -0.3 45.4 46.5 11.9 13.1 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 5.5 6.4 9.4 -0.4 43.6 44.8 5.7 6.9 8.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 11.5 12.7 10.8 -0.3 44.9 46.1 11.8 13.1 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.1 12.7 10.2 0.1 52.1 51.7 11.3 12.5 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 10.7 11.5 12.1 -0.4 42.0 43.9 10.9 12.1 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 5.7 5.4 10.3 0.1 51.3 51.1 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 11.9 13.2 11.6 -0.2 46.7 47.7 12.2 13.5 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 11.5 12.9 11.0 0.0 49.6 49.8 11.7 12.9 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 11.7 13.1 11.2 -0.2 47.0 47.8 12.0 13.3 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 11.6 13.0 10.8 0.0 49.7 49.8 11.7 13.0 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 11.6 13.1 10.9 -0.1 48.2 48.7 11.9 13.2 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.0 13.6 12.2 0.0 50.5 50.5 12.2 13.5 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 10.7 11.4 10.6 -0.3 43.2 44.5 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 12.2 13.6 10.9 -0.1 47.5 48.0 12.5 13.8 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 10.4 11.3 12.0 -0.3 43.8 45.3 10.6 11.7 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 12.5 12.2 10.9 0.2 52.4 51.9 10.9 12.0 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 13.1 12.2 12.5 -0.3 44.9 46.1 11.3 12.6 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.5 10.4 9.4 0.3 55.7 54.2 8.8 10.0 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 13.7 12.8 12.2 -0.3 45.2 46.4 11.9 13.1 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.9 12.0 12.1 -0.3 45.3 46.5 11.2 12.4 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 13.2 12.5 12.7 -0.1 47.6 48.2 11.4 12.7 13.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.2 13.7 12.1 0.0 50.2 50.3 12.4 13.7 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 12.7 11.7 10.8 -0.4 42.4 44.0 11.0 12.2 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 11.4 12.7 10.2 -0.1 48.1 48.8 11.6 12.8 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 13.4 12.4 11.7 -0.4 43.3 44.7 11.6 12.9 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 11.0 11.8 10.1 -0.3 44.8 45.7 11.2 12.1 13.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 9.8 9.6 10.5 0.3 54.8 53.6 8.1 9.3 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 10.9 11.8 12.3 -0.4 43.2 44.8 11.1 12.2 13.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------