***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.10.2016.-30.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 6.6 9.9 12.8 125.8 72.1 56.4 2.7 5.1 8.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 5.9 6.8 8.9 92.5 63.1 49.7 2.3 4.5 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 6.7 10.2 13.2 124.8 72.1 57.4 2.8 5.2 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 8.6 14.3 14.7 136.4 74.7 58.8 3.5 6.6 10.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 10.8 13.1 14.7 147.0 76.9 60.6 3.2 5.8 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 9.9 11.8 13.2 140.8 75.8 58.5 2.9 5.3 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 5.5 6.0 8.3 87.9 62.0 49.4 2.5 4.3 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 9.3 17.1 16.8 143.9 76.2 60.7 3.3 6.9 12.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 10.0 12.2 15.8 151.4 77.7 61.5 3.3 5.6 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 12.0 15.2 17.8 152.0 77.9 62.1 3.6 6.5 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.3 12.3 14.9 144.7 76.4 58.9 3.0 5.6 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 6.5 11.0 14.8 142.2 75.9 59.3 2.7 4.9 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 11.8 14.3 17.4 151.1 77.6 62.3 2.9 5.8 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 9.1 14.8 17.3 131.8 73.5 59.4 3.5 6.8 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 5.8 10.1 13.7 135.9 74.8 58.1 2.0 4.2 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.4 11.2 14.7 140.0 75.4 58.3 2.0 4.4 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 7.1 6.9 7.3 78.1 58.4 46.4 2.4 5.1 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 11.6 13.9 18.4 144.1 76.3 60.4 3.4 6.3 10.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 6.9 8.9 10.3 101.5 65.5 51.4 2.5 5.1 9.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 13.4 14.8 18.4 133.7 73.7 59.1 3.2 6.5 11.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 6.7 12.3 15.1 146.6 76.8 60.1 2.4 5.0 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.0 7.9 8.6 85.5 59.9 46.3 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 7.5 10.8 12.7 115.2 69.3 54.5 2.7 5.6 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 8.6 14.8 16.9 140.7 75.6 60.2 3.4 6.5 11.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 5.8 9.2 14.3 135.7 74.5 58.3 2.4 4.3 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 7.5 10.3 11.6 107.8 68.7 54.2 3.0 5.6 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.4 8.1 12.9 124.8 72.0 56.3 2.1 4.1 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 6.8 11.0 14.1 135.3 74.6 58.3 2.9 5.3 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 12.0 18.6 18.1 135.0 74.0 59.1 5.1 9.1 14.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 5.4 6.5 9.9 97.9 64.8 51.3 2.2 4.2 6.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------