***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.10.2016.-06.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 3.5 6.8 10.4 67.9 52.7 43.1 3.4 6.3 10.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.9 6.5 9.8 70.6 53.7 42.1 2.7 5.6 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.5 6.7 10.4 67.1 51.6 41.9 3.1 6.3 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 3.1 7.4 11.1 73.8 55.9 44.8 2.9 6.0 10.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.7 8.3 11.3 78.6 57.8 46.4 3.5 6.4 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 6.1 6.0 10.0 83.5 58.8 46.7 2.3 4.5 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.7 5.9 9.9 72.9 54.2 43.0 2.5 5.1 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 13.9 13.5 11.9 83.8 59.0 46.7 4.0 9.4 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.9 7.2 10.5 73.0 56.2 43.2 3.3 6.0 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 9.1 8.5 11.6 78.1 57.2 45.4 3.4 6.6 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.3 7.3 11.3 80.0 57.3 45.3 3.0 5.8 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.0 9.1 11.0 82.5 58.9 47.1 3.5 6.8 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 9.0 8.2 10.0 74.3 57.3 45.3 3.1 6.4 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.7 12.6 12.4 75.2 55.1 45.2 5.0 10.5 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.3 4.7 9.8 64.9 53.2 42.2 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.1 7.1 10.0 75.0 56.9 44.6 2.6 5.6 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 2.2 5.2 9.4 72.0 53.8 42.1 2.0 4.5 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 4.7 9.8 11.5 72.4 54.4 43.4 4.3 8.5 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 2.9 6.5 10.1 69.4 53.1 42.1 2.7 5.8 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 4.5 10.7 14.6 81.1 57.2 45.8 3.8 8.1 14.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 3.6 7.3 10.0 69.5 54.7 42.7 3.5 6.3 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 2.5 6.2 10.2 74.4 55.3 44.3 2.3 5.1 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.6 7.7 10.6 69.1 53.4 43.8 3.3 6.8 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.7 7.9 10.9 69.7 52.9 42.5 3.1 6.9 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.1 7.2 11.8 74.7 56.1 46.4 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 2.6 6.8 11.2 84.2 59.7 48.9 2.1 4.7 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.9 6.1 11.0 69.6 53.2 43.6 2.6 5.5 9.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.3 5.3 9.9 71.8 56.1 44.5 2.0 4.1 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 6.3 12.9 12.6 73.3 54.0 43.9 5.5 11.2 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.2 6.4 10.1 69.2 52.8 42.2 2.9 5.8 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------