***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.11.2016.-13.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 14.1 17.0 16.0 143.4 76.1 61.4 3.7 7.3 12.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 16.7 21.2 15.9 160.2 79.7 63.8 4.1 7.9 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 9.6 15.4 15.0 130.4 72.7 58.0 3.5 7.1 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.4 16.6 15.0 118.7 70.0 53.4 3.8 8.2 14.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 8.8 12.2 14.6 110.8 67.5 52.1 3.4 6.7 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.1 7.9 12.5 85.6 60.2 47.0 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 16.1 21.9 16.7 169.6 81.4 64.6 4.1 7.9 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 11.9 16.8 15.2 111.5 67.6 53.6 4.3 8.9 15.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 8.1 10.8 15.3 111.1 67.4 52.0 2.9 6.1 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 8.8 11.8 15.4 107.3 66.3 52.8 3.4 6.8 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 8.7 11.0 13.6 105.5 65.8 50.8 3.0 6.3 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.4 11.5 13.8 111.2 67.9 52.6 2.9 6.1 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 3.3 11.4 13.7 101.7 65.3 49.3 3.1 6.6 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 11.0 15.6 17.1 119.6 69.8 57.3 4.3 8.2 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.0 13.6 15.7 123.7 71.5 53.2 2.4 5.7 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 3.0 9.9 12.7 99.7 64.4 48.3 2.8 5.8 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 19.0 24.6 16.2 162.8 80.2 63.4 4.1 8.4 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.0 11.7 16.4 109.3 66.6 54.1 3.4 6.7 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 15.7 18.9 15.2 148.1 77.0 61.8 3.4 7.3 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 11.3 15.6 19.4 111.5 66.9 54.6 3.7 8.1 15.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 7.9 11.8 14.9 119.4 69.8 54.2 2.7 5.7 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 17.7 22.4 16.5 154.2 78.4 63.1 3.6 7.8 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.1 15.3 14.5 130.9 73.0 58.0 3.5 7.0 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.5 12.2 16.0 118.3 69.4 55.8 2.8 6.0 10.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.9 16.5 16.9 141.4 75.6 59.5 2.6 6.1 11.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.0 12.6 15.3 114.3 68.7 52.9 2.8 6.2 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 11.5 14.7 16.9 149.6 77.4 61.8 2.8 5.7 9.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.7 10.0 13.5 109.9 67.8 51.4 2.1 5.0 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.1 17.2 17.3 108.3 66.1 54.3 4.3 9.2 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 14.4 18.1 16.0 155.0 78.6 63.1 3.6 7.2 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------