***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.11.2016.-20.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 3.5 8.9 8.7 80.0 56.9 42.2 3.5 7.0 12.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 3.8 11.3 8.5 94.5 62.1 44.8 3.7 7.4 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 5.2 12.7 8.8 79.8 56.8 42.0 5.0 10.0 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 6.6 16.0 9.6 84.4 59.2 45.7 6.1 11.9 20.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 5.5 12.7 9.1 79.2 56.7 43.8 4.9 10.0 17.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 16.3 17.8 10.6 89.7 61.0 46.3 6.5 12.5 20.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 3.5 9.6 8.3 93.4 61.5 44.8 3.6 6.8 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 8.1 21.8 10.4 93.4 61.7 48.1 7.1 14.4 25.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 6.2 12.9 9.5 78.0 56.0 42.8 5.5 10.6 17.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 6.2 15.1 10.2 83.8 57.8 45.1 5.5 11.4 19.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 6.2 15.7 9.3 86.1 59.2 45.8 5.8 11.4 19.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 6.9 19.5 9.6 93.9 62.3 47.7 5.8 12.3 22.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 6.6 18.3 10.7 89.8 60.7 45.7 6.0 12.4 21.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 6.4 15.0 10.0 77.9 55.2 42.9 6.4 12.6 21.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 5.4 15.9 10.2 87.0 60.8 46.0 4.2 10.2 19.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 5.9 15.5 9.9 88.2 60.2 45.8 5.4 10.8 18.7 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 3.5 9.8 8.4 95.1 62.0 44.7 3.4 6.6 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 6.3 14.8 10.4 79.7 54.7 43.3 6.1 12.3 21.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 4.5 12.6 8.7 92.0 61.6 44.8 4.2 8.4 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 7.1 20.1 13.9 95.4 61.2 48.1 6.4 13.2 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 5.5 12.3 9.0 76.8 55.1 40.7 5.2 10.2 17.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.7 11.4 9.0 97.2 63.5 45.6 3.4 7.0 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.5 11.3 8.9 84.9 59.0 44.1 4.1 8.2 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.8 12.2 9.4 74.9 53.5 41.4 5.5 10.7 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 4.6 11.2 9.4 79.5 57.5 42.9 4.7 8.8 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 7.0 21.8 11.5 106.4 66.9 49.0 6.1 12.3 21.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 4.5 11.0 8.9 80.3 57.4 43.1 4.7 8.7 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 5.5 15.3 9.8 88.0 60.6 46.1 4.6 10.1 18.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 9.0 21.0 11.4 83.5 56.0 44.7 9.0 17.3 28.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 3.8 10.7 8.7 90.0 60.7 44.2 3.7 7.4 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------