***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.10.2016.-20.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 40.7 42.0 47.9 100.7 59.1 54.2 27.2 36.3 46.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 40.3 42.6 43.2 101.6 59.7 54.6 23.1 34.5 48.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 46.7 46.8 47.4 97.4 57.0 52.0 30.3 41.7 54.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 54.2 56.7 50.4 101.2 59.8 53.9 36.9 48.9 62.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 48.0 49.5 49.7 101.3 59.6 53.9 33.8 43.6 54.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 43.8 43.2 46.4 96.8 57.3 51.4 26.4 37.6 50.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 35.7 38.4 43.2 103.6 60.9 55.6 19.9 30.2 42.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 70.8 76.8 54.2 107.3 62.6 56.5 46.7 62.8 80.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 44.6 45.3 51.1 100.6 59.0 53.3 30.4 39.8 50.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 51.9 54.3 54.9 103.6 60.5 54.9 34.7 46.3 59.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 47.5 49.2 49.1 102.1 59.7 53.9 31.2 42.3 54.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 50.6 55.0 49.1 106.1 62.1 55.9 32.6 45.0 58.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 52.5 55.2 51.7 102.9 60.4 54.9 33.2 45.9 60.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 63.4 64.4 56.8 100.0 58.0 53.3 43.8 57.4 72.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 44.8 46.1 49.3 99.5 59.5 53.3 24.7 37.5 52.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 44.3 44.9 47.3 99.0 58.3 52.9 25.7 38.0 52.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 40.1 41.4 41.3 100.3 59.1 53.8 22.0 33.8 48.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 56.7 57.0 56.8 99.9 57.8 53.2 39.4 51.0 63.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 43.9 45.1 44.3 99.7 58.4 53.3 25.9 37.9 52.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 66.0 69.1 66.2 104.8 60.8 56.0 45.9 59.5 74.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 45.1 46.2 49.1 100.1 58.9 53.2 30.4 40.4 51.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 43.4 45.0 44.3 101.4 59.4 53.7 24.6 37.0 51.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 45.6 45.2 46.8 97.4 56.7 51.8 28.2 40.0 53.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 51.4 51.9 53.2 99.0 57.5 52.3 33.7 45.8 59.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 41.1 44.2 52.3 104.5 61.3 56.0 25.9 36.2 48.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 48.8 52.2 49.5 102.8 60.7 55.2 32.9 44.1 56.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 38.5 40.4 49.8 102.4 60.0 55.2 25.1 34.3 44.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 43.2 44.6 47.3 99.3 59.1 52.9 27.0 37.9 50.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 79.3 79.2 59.4 98.8 56.8 52.8 60.0 73.4 87.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 38.0 39.2 44.7 100.0 58.7 53.9 22.5 32.9 45.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------