***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2015.-22.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 3.1 2.4 3.5 0.0 49.6 50.7 0.8 2.4 4.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 2.2 1.7 3.3 0.1 51.0 51.6 -0.3 1.5 3.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 4.2 3.7 3.3 0.2 52.3 52.4 1.6 3.4 5.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 -0.7 -1.1 0.8 0.3 53.7 53.8 -3.5 -1.5 0.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.3 53.9 53.7 -0.3 1.1 2.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 -1.2 0.9 -0.6 0.3 54.3 55.2 -0.9 0.5 1.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 2.3 1.6 3.2 0.0 49.9 50.9 -0.1 1.6 3.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -3.2 -3.2 0.1 0.5 56.2 55.8 -5.8 -3.9 -2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 0.2 2.2 1.7 0.2 53.2 53.1 0.4 2.0 3.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 1.9 1.7 0.7 0.3 54.3 54.1 -0.2 1.3 2.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 1.7 1.6 0.8 0.4 56.0 55.2 -0.5 1.0 2.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 -1.3 0.9 0.7 0.5 56.4 55.8 -1.1 0.3 1.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.3 53.8 54.0 -0.7 0.8 2.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 2.5 2.2 1.9 0.3 53.6 52.8 0.3 1.9 3.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 2.2 2.0 1.4 0.3 54.6 54.7 0.4 1.7 2.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 2.3 2.1 0.3 0.4 55.4 55.2 0.3 1.7 3.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 2.1 1.4 3.0 -0.1 49.2 50.5 -0.1 1.5 3.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 0.0 -0.3 0.3 0.2 53.3 53.3 -1.7 -0.5 0.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 2.2 1.8 3.3 0.2 52.4 52.5 -0.1 1.6 3.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 -2.4 -2.8 -1.1 0.3 53.6 54.1 -5.0 -3.1 -1.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 2.3 1.8 2.7 0.1 51.9 52.2 -0.1 1.6 3.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 1.7 1.2 3.1 0.1 50.7 51.3 -0.5 1.1 2.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 2.0 1.7 3.2 0.3 54.1 53.3 -0.2 1.4 2.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 1.6 1.3 1.7 0.3 54.1 53.3 -0.4 1.0 2.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 2.4 2.0 2.0 0.2 52.1 52.4 0.4 1.8 3.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 1.5 1.3 0.3 0.2 53.3 53.8 -0.2 1.0 2.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 2.7 2.0 2.8 0.1 51.2 51.7 -0.2 1.9 3.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.3 54.7 54.9 -1.1 0.2 1.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 -0.2 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 52.8 53.0 -2.9 -1.0 0.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 2.6 2.0 3.4 0.1 51.0 51.6 0.0 1.9 3.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------