***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2015.-22.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 3.8 3.5 5.3 0.0 50.6 50.6 2.5 3.5 4.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 3.2 2.9 5.0 0.1 51.0 50.9 1.8 2.9 3.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 5.3 5.2 5.2 0.2 53.2 52.7 4.0 5.0 5.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 0.3 0.2 2.6 0.2 52.9 52.6 -1.0 0.0 0.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 2.6 2.4 2.7 0.1 51.7 51.5 1.5 2.3 3.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 1.9 1.9 1.2 0.3 55.1 54.5 0.8 1.7 2.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 3.2 2.7 4.8 -0.2 47.3 47.9 1.8 2.8 3.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -1.7 -1.6 1.8 0.4 57.6 56.3 -3.0 -2.0 -1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 3.4 3.2 3.3 0.0 50.4 50.5 2.3 3.2 4.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 3.0 3.0 2.4 0.3 55.0 54.2 1.9 2.8 3.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 2.6 2.6 2.6 0.3 55.0 54.2 1.5 2.4 3.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 1.9 1.9 2.3 0.3 55.7 54.7 0.7 1.6 2.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 2.2 2.1 1.8 0.2 53.6 53.1 1.1 1.9 2.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 3.8 3.8 3.7 0.3 55.4 54.3 2.7 3.5 4.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 3.1 3.0 3.4 0.2 53.6 53.2 1.9 2.8 3.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 3.4 3.4 2.1 0.3 54.9 54.2 2.2 3.1 4.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 3.2 2.8 4.6 -0.1 48.4 48.8 1.9 2.9 3.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 1.5 1.5 2.0 0.3 55.5 54.4 0.5 1.2 1.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 3.3 3.2 5.1 0.2 53.6 53.0 2.0 3.0 3.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 -1.1 -1.1 0.7 0.4 57.2 55.9 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 3.2 3.0 4.5 0.0 50.8 50.8 2.0 2.9 3.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 2.7 2.4 4.8 0.0 50.0 50.2 1.5 2.4 3.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 3.2 3.2 5.0 0.3 56.3 55.1 2.1 2.9 3.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 2.7 2.7 3.5 0.3 55.4 54.4 1.7 2.4 3.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 3.4 3.4 4.1 0.2 53.4 53.0 2.3 3.2 4.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 2.5 2.5 2.0 0.3 54.6 53.8 1.4 2.3 3.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 3.7 3.3 4.5 0.0 50.5 50.5 2.2 3.3 4.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 1.7 1.6 2.7 0.2 52.7 52.4 0.6 1.4 2.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 1.3 1.4 1.6 0.4 57.2 55.8 -0.1 1.0 2.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 3.6 3.3 5.2 0.1 51.1 50.9 2.1 3.2 4.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------