***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2015.-01.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 15.4 14.0 14.1 -0.9 41.4 41.8 13.1 15.0 16.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 89 11 100 15.1 14.1 14.4 -0.7 43.1 43.5 13.1 14.7 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 88 12 100 15.9 14.6 14.4 -0.9 41.6 42.0 13.6 15.5 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 5.4 6.1 10.0 -2.3 28.5 29.1 6.7 9.0 11.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 16.1 14.0 12.2 -1.5 36.3 36.8 13.6 15.5 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 15.3 13.7 11.3 -1.1 40.1 40.6 12.8 14.8 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 90 10 100 14.7 13.8 14.4 -0.6 43.9 44.3 12.7 14.4 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 90 10 100 7.6 7.1 12.3 -0.4 46.7 46.9 5.7 7.3 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 16.1 14.6 13.5 -1.0 40.1 40.4 13.8 15.6 17.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 15.7 14.7 13.0 -0.6 44.3 44.5 13.5 15.3 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 16.3 14.3 12.4 -1.3 37.7 38.1 13.7 15.6 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 15.6 14.2 12.3 -0.9 41.9 42.2 13.2 15.1 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 89 11 100 15.9 14.8 12.8 -0.8 42.7 43.0 13.7 15.6 17.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 16.2 15.4 14.5 -0.3 46.9 47.2 13.7 15.8 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 11.9 12.2 11.6 -2.1 27.7 28.4 12.8 14.4 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 16.9 14.9 12.2 -1.3 37.4 37.9 14.4 16.3 18.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 89 11 100 14.2 13.3 14.1 -0.7 43.4 43.8 12.3 13.9 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 89 11 100 14.8 14.5 13.3 0.1 50.7 50.7 12.5 14.4 16.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 89 11 100 15.3 14.3 14.6 -0.7 43.5 43.9 13.1 14.9 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 90 10 100 12.6 13.0 12.3 0.8 57.0 56.8 10.4 12.3 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 15.9 14.4 13.9 -1.1 39.4 39.8 13.7 15.4 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 15.2 14.1 14.2 -0.6 43.6 44.0 13.0 14.8 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 15.4 14.6 14.7 -0.5 45.1 45.4 13.3 15.1 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 16.2 15.5 14.3 -0.3 46.9 47.2 13.8 15.8 17.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 15.1 13.4 12.7 -1.2 38.4 38.8 12.9 14.6 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 95 5 100 15.3 14.8 12.2 -0.4 46.1 46.3 13.5 15.1 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 89 11 100 15.5 14.4 13.8 -0.7 42.9 43.2 13.4 15.2 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 11.5 12.1 10.8 -2.4 27.2 27.9 12.8 14.7 16.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 11.8 12.1 13.3 0.7 56.5 56.3 9.2 11.3 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 15.0 14.0 14.5 -0.7 43.2 43.5 12.9 14.6 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------