***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2015.-08.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 13.8 11.7 11.4 -1.1 37.5 40.9 11.1 13.0 14.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 13.4 11.5 11.5 -1.1 38.1 41.2 11.0 12.7 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 14.2 12.1 11.4 -1.2 37.5 40.9 11.5 13.4 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.8 4.9 8.6 -1.8 31.5 36.7 5.1 6.9 8.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.9 11.5 9.3 -1.5 35.1 39.3 11.3 13.1 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.7 11.7 8.7 -1.2 39.0 42.2 11.0 12.9 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 13.3 11.3 11.4 -1.0 38.2 41.4 10.8 12.6 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 6.4 4.8 9.1 -0.8 41.7 44.4 3.8 5.6 7.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 14.4 12.2 10.2 -1.2 37.4 41.0 11.7 13.7 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.9 12.2 9.6 -1.0 40.2 43.2 11.4 13.2 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 14.3 12.1 9.4 -1.2 37.4 41.1 11.5 13.5 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 14.1 12.3 9.6 -0.9 40.7 43.6 11.4 13.3 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.3 12.5 9.4 -0.9 41.4 43.9 11.5 13.5 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 14.5 12.8 10.8 -0.9 41.1 43.7 11.9 13.7 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 10.6 10.6 8.6 -1.9 29.4 35.4 10.9 12.3 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 14.8 12.5 9.2 -1.3 37.3 40.9 12.0 14.0 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 12.9 11.1 11.2 -1.1 37.6 40.9 10.6 12.2 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 13.1 11.8 9.8 -0.6 43.8 46.1 10.7 12.4 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 13.6 11.7 11.6 -1.1 38.3 41.4 11.1 12.9 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 11.2 10.4 8.5 -0.2 47.9 49.3 8.7 10.6 12.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 14.1 11.9 10.7 -1.3 36.6 40.3 11.5 13.4 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 13.5 11.6 11.2 -1.1 37.4 40.7 11.1 12.8 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 13.8 11.9 11.6 -1.0 39.1 42.0 11.2 13.1 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 14.6 12.9 10.7 -0.9 41.0 43.8 11.9 13.9 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 13.1 10.9 9.7 -1.3 35.8 39.7 10.6 12.4 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 14.0 12.8 9.5 -0.6 44.1 46.0 11.6 13.4 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 13.8 11.8 10.8 -1.1 38.1 41.4 11.2 13.1 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 10.7 10.8 8.7 -1.9 30.7 36.2 11.0 12.4 13.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 10.4 9.4 9.5 -0.3 47.0 48.6 7.8 9.7 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 13.4 11.4 11.6 -1.1 38.0 41.2 10.8 12.6 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------